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[lastpost] => 2817568 “我们或许真的会回来”:BONK.fun 重新上线首日营收超越 Pump.fun(转) 1774325615 小作文
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。$ W) _( j. W9 v2 |5 |
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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) {, \3 Q" r! w$ }自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
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2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。8 A5 z/ q% O# e* R& U
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
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观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
( ^9 B& Z3 b- t6 k! Z0 c% p分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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# r e3 d: X" l+ [+ w9 \上周降至1300 BTC。, @3 @- [& Z+ }6 v
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从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
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( |' x& u! |4 _1 N9 Z7 Q" k3 z, W4 g1 C鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
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% E0 X0 i8 |& O d鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
8 y/ L* l5 `6 \3 F) }3 `) Z& j- f u. X) `% P
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
2 q2 t4 S3 r+ g4 Z6 Q6 y& ~& K3 h: O9 x' d& F: H' a
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。
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比特币会突破其区间吗?
( s! W8 d5 D8 ]2 D4 k& k随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
% e! }" {8 r: |( a& w4 Y6 |. N. R7 i; u8 K
根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。* w+ C) ]' L% ]& Y7 {! t
1 J1 E& |* K; i$ }: Q$ ]因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。- ~9 U' }& }1 h& a) T/ ]
1 @' `& a5 P; j w; b技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。
; m; {3 j! Z O1 j
4 p9 H3 n2 x7 l" F0 z+ s, X* L& L( z3 [位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
# T$ M# {. Y( w7 e0 C2 k+ s然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。* L' g* R/ f6 y! N3 k6 z8 ]
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根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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