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加密货币寒冬遵循以下顺序：重大事件→信任崩塌→人才流失/ ? p3 P! t+ ?6 A) X& M0 G! T
n8 U. h3 \9 G- ^ F( u+ \过去的寒冬是由内部问题造成的；目前的涨跌则是由外部因素驱动的；既非寒冬也非暖春。 c! ^8 c4 A1 i% j: V ~
& A' I$ e% @. u( G监管后的市场分为三个层次：监管区域、非监管区域和共享基础设施；涓滴效应消失。: c+ v% e% t- x: a2 n
) A6 s3 \# ~6 b& X( s, ^ETF资金留在比特币中，不会流出监管区域。
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下一轮牛市需要杀手级的应用场景以及有利的宏观环境。" F% f9 {. y( l
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1. 以往的加密货币寒冬是如何发生的？
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来源：Tiger Research
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第一个寒冬出现在2014年。当时，Mt. Gox交易所处理着全球70%的比特币交易量。一次黑客攻击导致约85万枚比特币消失，市场信任度崩塌。随后，一些具有内部控制和审计机制的新交易所应运而生，信任开始恢复。以太坊也通过ICO进入市场，为愿景和融资方式开辟了新的可能性。
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! R- w/ s; I- B# b" H) B这次ICO成为了下一轮牛市的导火索。当任何人都可以发行代币并筹集资金时，2017年的繁荣景象便随之而来。大量项目仅凭一份白皮书就筹集了数十亿美元，但其中大多数都缺乏实质内容。* C& t% h8 J* a$ p# [: O
) [ Y; ~4 H: e# G$ y* m$ k8 V2018年，韩国、天朝和美国纷纷出台监管政策措施，泡沫破裂，第二波寒冬来临。这场寒冬直到2020年才结束。新冠疫情后，流动性涌入，Uniswap、Compound和Aave等去中心化金融（DeFi）协议受到关注，资金重新回到市场。
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5 Y0 L- e9 l1 G+ h第三个寒冬最为严酷。2022年Terra-Luna崩盘后，Celsius、Three Arrows Capital和FTX相继倒闭。这并非单纯的币价下跌，而是整个行业的结构都受到了冲击。2024年1月，美国证券交易委员会（ETF）批准了现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），随后比特币减半以及特朗普亲加密货币政策的出台，资金再次涌入加密货币市场。
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8 `# q f: ?& {5 ~1 O2 A0 J2. 加密货币寒冬模式：重大事件→信任崩塌→人才流失, j) h' b5 T" a
这三次寒冬都遵循着同样的模式：先是重大事件发生，接着信任崩塌，之后人才流失。" e/ r$ H$ e; \) l6 j
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一切总是始于重大事件。例如Mt. Gox交易所遭黑客攻击、ICO监管改革、Terra-Luna崩盘以及随后的FTX破产。每次事件的规模和形式各不相同，但结果却如出一辙：整个市场陷入了恐慌。& ?) K: K' M' C9 [
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冲击很快蔓延，导致信任崩塌。原本还在讨论下一步发展方向的人们开始质疑加密货币是否真的是一项有意义的技术。开发者之间的合作氛围荡然无存，他们开始互相指责，争论谁该为此负责。2 i8 f. u) R- ]/ v+ m, P
6 ` W% T" |' o; K2 B$ ]! }8 ?' g怀疑导致人才流失。那些曾经在区块链领域创造新动力的建设者们开始变得怀疑。2014年，他们转投金融科技和大型科技公司。2018年，他们又转向金融机构和人工智能领域。他们离开是为了寻找看起来更稳妥的地方。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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加密市场的未来发展，靠监管改革和新应用场景来带动，关键是确保资金流向合规 |
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当前离线
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监管这事儿吧，就像打德州突然改规则，老玩家都懵了， |
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