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[lastpost] => 2796859 通过 Polymarket 对预测市场的深度洞察及观点定价的本质（转） 1768990357 g9527
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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋5.31 加息放缓 展望六月长线有机可乘 短线回踩做多为主 不追涨 不实时空
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经验:
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策小分:
总在线: 分钟
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行情重回多根日级均线之上、 ' N" g" j9 n7 ^, o! D6 s
相信有很多都猝不及防！
3 S4 m% `0 f" O5 v- F事实上、如果不是Luna崩盘事件、
1 i" {3 o: v/ o7 a7 [结合近期以太传闻六月合并、质押币大肆流通。担心出现挤兑崩盘！ ) ]& Y( Z. K) k* }) W
行情其实早就结合美股一同连涨！ ' q1 C/ A! V( F' L I( @) I! R( o
从消息局势来看、 . q9 x4 [* F; t4 s& ^( U
年初经历了YQ、WE、三月的25基点加息、5月的50基点加息。6月的加息缩表落地、 % u8 k2 I, i# [, J0 x) F4 P' ]
基本上最大的几个利空、市场相继都承受了。
* b9 i W0 t+ {1 L* Y* U9 Z现在就看、6月缩表实施后、美股是有过疲软， 6 N) i% J3 k' P
还是利空提前兑现、直接攀升。 : j7 }- c% \' m5 V2 F5 ?
再从价格来看、
1 u) p$ F, {" ~, B( D低于5.19牛市夭折的两年超级低点26700、 ! U* ?' r% k- k
近期长达半月的弱势横盘、都不再深探、
% m0 C/ M" S6 d6 b# J除了市场跌无可跌外、也说明在低于上届牛市低点、和大多数机构成本外。
" y. J, o; U6 J8 J: M这个点位肯定是不值得割肉、但肯定是值得投机的。
2 T% I$ ]1 l3 D3 \, W, \' ^) u6 G个人也说过、
2 F; @$ A1 u1 x) ^美联储、26号的纪要补充、起到了很好的效果。 # n& t$ \% d- a- C5 M+ ]
灵活控制膨胀，9月或将停止缩表降低加息、
. j! `. p$ r2 @这极大程度上会减缓由大力度加息带来的延伸性恐慌。
/ o1 J& a7 r1 C多头情绪是会有所好转的。
2 `' T) x* U) F, ^且6月间，靴子落地后、不再公布大于50基点+缩表这类型的超大利空。
7 O+ H) w1 h9 g* P市场是有望迎来一轮大行情。 , Q3 G8 q8 Y- L" r" f" L
尽管很难与20-21年大牛媲美、但也是连续的右侧行情。
% ^$ B2 _# ]( l8 M0 l% T( k但是行情的好转、不建议短线追涨、 . D. G# s- S; }
美股周二开盘、周三缩表正式开启。 * x5 Z8 f9 R/ V( H# y* O
6.14-6.15是议息时间。
" v# F, W. @2 y" W0 z5 `9 o关注这几个时间点、 , f& U5 f: b7 S
扼要、 , j6 t8 H, V0 M' ^
加息放缓、美股连涨，但六月50基点和缩表仍是实质利空。
2 l6 M$ C3 x0 _' }短期小涨、仍是弱势、短线切勿追多。| 1 z" o" M, C, A; e0 ]
但更不可开空、因无法预估此时的抄底博弈上限峰值在哪里。 ; n- ]" Z4 [ n5 f* f) E2 ^
但是可跟随小趋势、回踩做多。
6 p# ]# Q4 ^# n, l- i长线现货可在5.12低点附近埋伏做多、
6 X! L% u5 S( j e) n( O未进的、29000附近以太同步进场。
; G! q+ n) `) m7 ]" D, f夜间、依旧不做短线高空。回踩做多为主。
+ G" E, ]) h7 Q8 u% a: q o最新点位、
6 F0 L8 Y) n7 f% ^大饼回踩30200接多
- t( ~1 u1 y1 S- I {补仓29900 4 d/ A; G& D3 S$ @* R3 X# x( X3 |
防守29700
( i) R: o% }# d/ X目标尝试看30800-31200 : r% `$ g, _, E" f2 U1 f0 m
以太回踩1880激进接多 # P4 ~) F# b& r
补仓1855 防守1830 3 }3 x# ~. N( I
目标看齐1940-1960
, q! g) V! v4 F e) u) H" C（行情好转、以太有补涨需求。与大饼涨幅相差5%） 5 Q+ V J+ C7 n5 @
点位仅限使用一次、时效至早间8点。 ) I3 ^9 P5 ?0 `
有突发情况会做补充、仓位严控0.5成、扫损也在1.5成。
. {0 [! W7 o& H; ]" D5 i仓位配置是重中之重。 2 s/ G* q( h+ U7 r
来源：金色财经 |
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