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[lastpost] => 2791987 随着企业将大部分交易转移到链上，以太坊稳定币支付正在发生转变。(转） 1766579896 22301
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下一轮牛市会是一场冷牛市吗？8 F# [* e( ~- I" _& I
借用ZZ语汇中“冷战”、“冷和平”描述一下加密市场，我们正在经历一波冷反弹，我们未来可能会在经历一场冷牛市* V. I; q# i) k( ^' q& _
1我们正在经历一波没有赚钱效应的冷反弹Old Money Love Old Coins（老钱爱老币）* Q& j( d' m: Y$ U# M- A
美国华尔街老钱们新开辟的自留地EDX交易所 ，上线且只上线了四个老币：BTC/ETH/BCH/LTC
7 D9 A* ^0 X5 ]* M! n) R* P7 Z5 n& C但它们气势如虹的反弹属于老钱，大多数新韭菜只有看热闹、喊加油的份儿8 v& R5 X6 y5 S8 W8 _, f5 U
而我们拥有且珍爱的L2治理币、DeFi治理币、Web3游戏治理币、CEX治理币，在被SEC重拳出击之后刚刚腰斩，到今天大多数还在底部震荡
. v( T2 G2 P" u' h0 `在流动性没有实质改善的情况下，每次反弹都是以BTC为首的加密核心资产对加密风险资产的一次吸血& _# F: `4 j! s( ~1 I7 Z# J: M
预计这次反弹也不例外7 H" y/ P% k& A% h1 B' y2 w# v
2我们可能会经历一场没有大的财富效应的冷牛市上一轮牛市，是美联储货币政策周期（降息至0+QE放水）+美国经济周期（衰退==>复苏==>过热）+Gartner新兴技术成长曲线（DeFi、NFT进入大规模采用期）+BTC减半周期等等诸周期正向共振的结果
/ A# K1 C+ ~8 r( I% W. q# P4 D而站在我们当下，美联储货币政策周期（还要加息2次+QT回收流动性）+美国经济周期（过热==>温和衰退）+Gartner新兴技术成长曲线（新叙事与新叙事之间青黄不接）+BTC减半周期（减半效应边际递减），
' t) c- Z& b2 T5 L8 d! d在这样的诸周期共振下，预计下一轮牛市可能没有上一轮牛市那么烈火烹油、鲜花着锦般的绚烂热闹，很可能不会出现类似上一轮牛市DeFi和NFT项目们批量制造百万富翁的财富效应3 v/ D% t6 U2 U& X0 a2 `
当然，如果在23年下半年或者24年上半年发生黑天鹅，美联储再次急速降息至0+量化宽松+财政大撒币来放水，那就又是另一番景象了
- ^, a* H1 S# f$ t9 @' X3冷反弹与冷牛市中的个人交易策略冷牛市，并不意味着加密世界西部冒险时代的结束，更不等于说散户再也没有财富机会& j+ l$ ^# J: X$ Y/ S
只是我们需要稍微调整一下交易思路，从热衷发掘百倍币、万倍币等Alpha收益机会，调整为努力保持住Beta收益+复利思维
- ^& ^" S% i" n: v冷反弹与冷牛市意味着波动率的衰减，也意味着中性策略春天的到来
4 [' X3 N) T6 ]. x1 L2 F a1 q既不做多，也不做空，也不波段。而是，坚持以币本位为原则，努力囤积更多的币圈核心资产：BTC、ETH、Uniswap V3 WBTC-WETH LP、GLP等等. w. F4 V0 m2 E
不过如果你觉得中性策略枯燥且无聊的话，可以试试数学期望为正的投资方向，比如撸毛、Web3游戏打金、MEV机器人套利、百U冲MeMe币或土狗等等: c" ~9 ~. ^( ^* u
" i6 ?2 t+ z1 G/ I. J |
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