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[虚拟币交流]
牛市早期！Bitfinex：比特币价格黄金交叉、抛压持续减少（转载）
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近期比特币(BTC)持续在29,000美元区间反覆震荡，尽管今早一度反弹最高来到30,047
. u, h: B0 a) Q! {# v- [' R美元，但撰稿当下又再次跌落至2.9万美元区间。6 Y4 s: U6 L7 w7 L
Bitfinex：市场可能处于牛市的早期阶段
! ]! x- T7 W7 D5 p8 p" L对于近期币价走势，Bitfinex交易所发布最新研究报告指出，当前仍然可能处于牛市的早期阶段。
- O1 w2 e. i+ d* j2 @3 G报告指出，在超过一个月的时间里，比特币价格一直在29,500到31,500美元之间震荡，虽然当前再次跌破至3万0 @) v* ]8 [' X b* Y. }+ y" `
美元下方，但链上诸多数据表明牛市的开始，其中值得关注的是比特币的市场价格仍然高于其实现价格(Realized0 ^; t7 J$ P) b9 t4 R
Price)，这意味着市场参与者总体上是盈利的。
' {' }! l9 f0 \. k6 e( U* X% X" }Bitfinex在报告中解释：当比特币在长时间处于实际价格之下后，重新收复实现价格(Realized Price)之上，这通4 A1 k! T2 {3 Q L2 S
常表明新的牛市开始，而这种加密货币价格反弹与牛市启动之间的相关性是其历史表现中的一个「值得注意的趋0 ^- Q/ X0 G- h; d0 _ f0 I
势」。
+ C8 C O! r; [2 x S( c注：「已实现价格」是指代币「已实现市值」除以当前供应量，已实现市值是代币最后一次链上行动时的市场价
4 D* {# g2 e1 e" @' W* `- k格加总计算的市值，而该指标一般来说，被用作于计算比特币被购买时的「平均成本」。0 b' R4 p: N4 }9 m7 V
比特币钱包数量持续增加5 ^/ i, r0 e9 a4 p. t
与此同时，比特币网络同样持续增长，11月份比特币新地址创建的30天简单移动平均线(SMA)超过了其365天6 D E, W' [" ?* |+ M1 e
SMA，这个黄金交叉显示比特币钱包的新创建数量正在加速。4 {# E c6 Z$ W
从历史上看，钱包创建的增加通常与牛市的开始相一致，这暗示着比特币在不久的将来可能会有正面的价格动
2 [3 _; m% N! S- V向。这种模式是一个历史市场指标，可能意味着比特币的采用率增加或者对比特币的兴趣加强，因此潜在地推高4 T' u, l* h# q& d4 Q
其价值。
' N. @! h7 k2 B* L: `长期持有者信心增强，抛压正在减少
8 q h) ~* |+ U U3 V0 s: b在长期持有者行为方面，报告通过Reserve Risk指标表示投资者信心逐渐增加，HODL倍数(RHODL)也呈上升趋' N/ x- @5 |. Z1 T0 C8 ?
势，这表明比特币的抛压正在减少，从而引发更多看涨的市场情绪。
& v; Z; ?& K$ _注：RHODL是一个指标，用于相对于整个市场来研究比特币的长期持有者行为。该指标是通过将实现市值的; a; H% P7 d- T! M+ ]3 ?# L& I& z9 g
HODL波浪除以实现市值来计算的。8 l( F6 x; A$ @+ [# d2 Y
z' P( C" I% u Q$ F- B! m5 e
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