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[虚拟币交流]
比特币一度冲破3万美元！现货ETF、触底的波动率唤醒上涨攻势？（转载）
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比特币(BTC)在7月中旬上冲至31,800美元高点，创下去年5月以来的新高后，就开始不4 J7 {( z4 \4 n& ^/ g- B' D) S4 t
断阴跌，甚至多次跌破2.8万美元。6 a& d2 Z K; l+ }/ g! r4 e7 m, s
但昨日开始，比特币价格似乎又再次扭转颓势，突破盘整区间从29,000美元附近一举上攻，一度在今晨站上" q0 N! B2 E* Q5 c
30,000美元大关，截稿前略有下滑暂报29,862美元。+ o* i2 F+ e6 r8 ~
波动率历史低点，爆发到来？4 @7 F' l z1 m7 C4 p& J# Y
近期，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报，指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄: S- J) k& O% j: i3 a% | j
金，K33分析师认为比特币正处于「火山爆发」前夕。(历史中同样情况时，上涨的机率比下跌高一些)
$ E$ f7 Q* [# Y2 l从Coinglass数据可以看到，近期比特币价格的波动率大概落在1.3%左右，这个水平是自从2020年牛市启动前的
# `- p1 s, J3 I7 _! X低点。0 l- K5 C9 e s: ], S
全球经济将迈入升息周期尾声
$ {1 U N8 B6 Y2 ^: H另一方面，上周五(4)美国劳工部公布了非农就业报告，非农就业的增加人数创下了2020年12月以来最低纪录，突8 ]3 z" n( R4 o1 @5 Z
显了经济降温的迹象，并预计将缓解联准会在下次会议上升息的压力。6 e% Q" x; v9 O/ A- _% i7 ?
目前芝商所的FedWatch数据也显示，市场预测联准会在下次利率会议上维持在现行利率区间5.25%~5.50%的机
( e, w p+ l( J: f5 m2 h6 F率高达86.5%，本波升息循环可以将正式结束。
, g0 J1 U% x7 Q% \) T6 H4 F! A' d7 E美国多间银行也对外表示全球升息周期有可能落幕，据财富周五报导，亚特兰大联邦准备银行行长Raphael0 {1 Q2 n! i8 j7 s" C% [# C
Bostic公开表明他认为没有必要进一步加息。4 N/ Q, ]1 y' _' N
“我预计经济将以相当有序的方式放缓，而7月份的非农就业数据-18.7万人的增幅-将继续这一步伐，我预计这种
" }0 m$ w6 Y' b! {; y情况不会在短时间内结束。”
, Q$ N+ @" M( v) B+ Q' w纽约联准银行总裁威廉斯(John Williams)也在近期接受纽约时报专访指出，未来的通膨如果如外界预期般持续下
" E; O7 {% @* [% X/ `; }, e( e降，他认为联准会(Fed)不排除明年甚至可能开始降息，但一切有待更多数据公布。
2 I8 t1 Z% ~; T) H2 l比特币ETF即将通过？8 f3 b0 |# p# V8 \' C& m3 Q u
另外一个可能会大举推动比特币上涨的原因还有一个，由多家华尔街巨头推动的比特币现货ETF。据Bloomberg" [2 U* b# M0 k/ J+ T
资深ETF分析师Eric Balchunas昨晚最新贴文，他表示：Galaxy执行长Mike Novogratz在今早的财报电话会议上9 ]/ h* c6 d+ q
表示，据贝莱德和景顺投信内部的联系人透露，比特币现货ETF的批准可能会在四到六个月内，而不是「是否」的8 K5 q5 Y& z- v, u0 g8 j# C \+ C
问题。
5 _' I3 g( i& I' D/ O% n似乎有很大的自信判断市场即将迎来现货ETF。
. T% p$ S. M" z9 Y* i4 W. g3 J8 U6 ^( P( E$ }& W8 \) t
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