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3 V& @3 @9 j6 H' T2 M很好的文章,转发给大家看。
[欧赔最优解]4 h; s9 D2 m4 ], D
9 k8 z/ L! y% _# g, M* S. W# t大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。
: o% S( q9 @6 S# _. `有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。; w" }2 _7 H; U1 u4 D7 {& E7 _
结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。3 A7 k' P6 S( u! r
* d% l! X$ I6 O. r* s* _, \
[1]
p7 f# S8 q' A8 S9 A英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。5 i9 w7 x5 [% I
威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。 b- G% {1 A/ C1 X
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。
1 u' k# z* n# @% m: l+ L这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。
1 w8 |% U4 ^# N$ Q2 [: S结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。
. [' _, f5 k4 S8 c. @6 |主胜的开法:$ {5 R6 j1 z& s- |0 w5 C. }
威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。! H! q7 S+ Z+ }( Z% J# l, @3 O
你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?
; A2 j0 F- V w; x2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
9 n9 y- y9 f7 f/ C; `主负:3 r& Z; o9 Q9 [. f- e) Z9 ?
威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。5 F0 v) _( k( S7 C
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。: U' j, c; {% b6 h9 s: p' v! M6 F
平局:
9 b9 j! M1 c: o) o, D; {现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。
7 y) B0 S" Z) B& E& l$ v6 U6 C- M) m0 K" {0 m3 \
[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
( R3 j6 p" v, _. Y) A7 D威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
/ C! V& V1 \# ~+ Z维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。8 x; X7 N' P7 U: U: {) I7 y: ^
思维与上场一样。$ S. J p$ h) @7 @% M0 i, ?8 a- B
# D! L9 i. h( {0 j' ? c! u
[3] G, {* U2 y+ K4 E1 R; @6 M
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。" `3 x+ I* w) K* d
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
, z& |0 E' p) c! z! T* p; @$ `. _立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。4 @9 d4 D: U7 o: c. L
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。0 H( J' P9 u- y- `* R
广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
2 B8 G& L1 W1 @' z主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。
. f1 m9 B& y+ ^7 E. p" j现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。: L* F3 B# Z0 c8 O
主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。* t$ s; {' c/ H- f% M$ |$ I
3 R' u" A6 A2 h2 p7 {7 v2 X$ V
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解? s4 e6 q! m6 M; _& I( L A2 `+ D
结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。
% t2 A: O1 E( _4 ]同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。- q& ~7 l: w% s6 u0 i, o7 x4 p) W. D
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。2 {% [1 G8 D! T+ p7 L$ ~
- @! m/ f5 ~$ _0 p" a
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。4 S" ~1 o2 j1 q
7 j4 @. q w; Y$ C2 B
例如:
{/ |* N1 A" g: A西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
. m2 L# m8 @" p7 {' ~) q6 j2 q双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。' P6 b8 b$ G, U9 Y* a0 |
所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。
; a5 V: A: [7 K. C( o) t8 b+ v/ g: |# V( k" K2 t* m/ ~# b
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。" L9 G9 B: Y( O" K6 T* C: L/ O1 d$ k
当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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