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[虚拟币交流]
比特币暴涨之际 小摩警告：“减半”热潮降温或令其回调超30%（转）
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比特币近期可谓涨势如虹：今年以来已经累计上涨了约45%，本周四甚至一度突破6.4万美元，接近此前（2021年11月8日）最高点6.9万美元。7 S4 U# N O _; ~ T. u1 C
2 P2 @, y8 y9 @3 ?+ q* Y; F0 y除了美国证监会今年1月批准的比特币ETF带来的需求飙升之外，“减半”也是推动比特币上涨的原因之一：今年4月，比特币四年一次的“减半”即将到来。
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) g5 ?# P; [6 v; `; f在历史上，“减半”往往能带来比特币的上涨潮，因为这一事件理论上将导致比特币供应短缺。- T! G) d$ b6 y. i5 P4 R W
然而，摩根大通分析师预计，在今年的“减半”后，比特币挖矿行业预计将进一步整合，导致比特币网路的算力在减半后下降约20%。这可能最终反而会
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' a8 n; ?& f1 U) T/ L压低比特币的价格。
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2 x. B; E5 c& q' F“减半”之后比特币挖矿成本上升
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从历史上看，比特币的价格每逢“减半”便会上涨，因为“减半”会提高矿工生产成本，而这通常被认为是比特币价格的下限。& z) t) p* |9 \6 Y
1 Z8 ]" \; [6 R% ^! s4 D摩根大通的策略师表示，比特币的平均生产成本目前为26500美元，理论上“减半”后将生产成本“机械翻番”至53000美元。. F I0 ]7 n2 ]0 p- W$ I+ o }
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小摩分析师认为，随着挖矿难度的增加，小型矿工预计将被迫停止运营。对于剩余的矿工们来说，这将使得挖矿难度可能比最初估计的要低两成，从而
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降低生产成本。6 }/ }2 @0 f* X- S1 F0 m4 A3 f
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小摩策略师们在报告中写道，由于比特币的下限支撑位降低，投资者可能会在4月“减半”发生后看到比特币价格回落至4.2万美元，这意味着较当前比特币$ J v% K5 s9 D
5 W X2 `: ?! p2 W! L3 \0 c3 M价格（6.2万美元左右）下跌超30%。$ f, z- Q0 P" Z4 Z" ?+ l
, m* a/ t# _3 d: B, k小摩设想情景也可能不会成真？/ A9 o# z9 z) H( W$ P
6 {/ `3 J" S3 B; {- o) ^小摩策略师的预测基于两个关键假设：6 W$ F: X( T6 K4 `
. }* ]7 A9 @' x7 V% h6 x4 L首先，“减半”后，矿工的电力成本估计平均为每千瓦时5美分，这可能因地点和规模而异。其次，随着比特币挖矿在“减半”之后变得更加能源密集型，一些% J& J% u) I6 F2 `8 d1 Y3 W0 A+ f1 g
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效率较低、手中资金较少的私人矿工将退出市场，因为他们的生产成本超过了市场价，这将使哈希率（衡量该行业采矿能力）下降约20%。" E1 `; }5 d6 ?
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“这20%的下降将使算力更接近历史趋势，”策略师们写道，“这将有效地将我们估计的生产成本范围的中心点削减到4.2万美元。这个4.2万美元的估计也是
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' J0 O7 K* }7 r( Z5 L F, b" j我们所设想的，一旦比特币‘减半’引发的乐观情绪在4月后消退，比特币价格就会走向的水平。”
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不过，如果比特币的价格保持在高位，哈希值的下降可能不会成为现实。随着越来越多的人通过新的现货比特币ETF购买比特币，比特币价格的上涨可能会
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让规模较小的矿商即使在4月份“减半”后仍能保持盈利，那么摩根大通设想的情景便不会实现。
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