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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。, |* e: T. J9 x& D
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许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
2 i+ N6 v* i2 ?8 q& Z# p' j& g: I9 D9 K8 X
格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速
1 Y4 r& ]/ v W
2 {9 _) {, M% [2 Y4 F/ ]猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?
- V. S$ V) D7 M9 t) q4 O& i0 r4 H, X: i h
对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。
: F# H' K( [4 k1 ^9 g
- p- _# ~5 a! n$ e+ H7 I这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
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^; ~1 R$ X/ C9 u, W! J比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
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狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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. J% C$ _. m) r3 I了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,; `; r3 \% P: X( J; F, Y
! R" M3 j+ l3 d* J+ ]1 {+ P黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉3 ]* S2 K+ i9 A3 x
4 x( r. K9 h# `+ s7 x+ L: c: J& k升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
2 m& I" |( b, Y# R: a6 t' o+ P3 ?
高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
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9 j9 x9 d: ?, A+ O5 a7 C# o! E回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置- v% f6 C, m7 }2 f, E
: C9 U3 B4 E9 J0 y- x于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资
3 s- L, C" v& A. i$ @- U a. q* I" H
产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著
/ n) z& p7 W& Y O9 `
* x* _8 l1 z! y: G8 Y* X跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。2 r: {" J9 H7 ]/ y( W5 a
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之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之: s2 C$ I1 H& K7 h# h* @
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于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。* e4 L7 z0 ^. R/ I
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而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
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, A3 \2 t8 i* p6 f, j/ \6 B8 \速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
5 {$ ^9 c: o# C' z0 X
1 P! R: [0 f% b9 U; b' I确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与
* {! {) K8 \8 `, J
6 N0 v8 I- b' [% g0 D$ y H& h8 u全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重/ R, N. ]; V+ y- k3 B2 j& |
& k8 k) y8 C9 a$ j- R$ |' x; c1 r
要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。$ ~' ?/ f1 V2 f; Y- {9 n; A
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