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[lastpost] => 2796758 比特币：为什么机构而非散户将决定比特币的下一步走势（转） 1768304877 人生如赌
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美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能- U9 p6 Y' B' X0 f7 v
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6 y. z. _" r4 R7 u; _, @成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。
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例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀$ O$ X4 M% v3 h$ u, Y: n: _4 k
: H s" x V/ q8 i" \4 O（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。% ~2 J5 _) H7 i! _# O: ^7 d
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尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的 a+ X/ F' X) z; p1 z/ i& e
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政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀
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' P/ v! w1 J+ e* o' x压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
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此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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8 L2 ^$ M$ H5 Y7 }8 e# \今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产
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* t: \4 |- e* V: C+ ?8 q- S对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战3 Y, R. z4 a, a9 l4 y
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略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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! k2 @- U# U: h/ A$ i0 ?& N看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。- o& ?4 r/ o( Y! U1 f
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