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[虚拟币交流]
比特币与 3 万亿美元美国债务——现在是购买 BTC 的时候了吗?(转)
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雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 警告称,美国债务可能会使与美元挂钩的财富贬值。
( q: `8 x9 [$ p7 J4 g% z加密货币领导者将财政混乱视为 BTC 的看涨催化剂。/ O% ]% ~$ S; f% R9 q$ x
比特币[BTC]随着 7 月 3 日税收和支出法案通过后美国债务问题成为头条新闻,加密货币推特上出现了大量看涨言论。# l) C2 O# G2 x$ P& b
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根据 估计,预计该法案将在未来10年内增加3万多亿美元。/ i0 a( H5 X8 [+ k
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但是,对冲基金桥水基金创始人雷·达利奥著名的 如果该法案按原样实施,债务可能会失控。
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0 r- H+ X$ B( ]他警告说,未来10年内,普通美国家庭的债务负担可能变得难以承受。
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可能的后果是什么?增税、削减ZF支出或增加印钞。这可能会削弱美元的价值,并损害那些依赖美元来保住财富的人。. o( K1 ~: @. R7 j, x' u. f' M
2 [# B( R% c2 z) z- m5 c" ~+ g他表示,1 ?7 [3 G6 p! H
' L: J; l8 ~/ ]8 k' y$ }4 h“这种印钞和贬值行为对于那些将债券作为财富储备的人来说并不好,而对债券和美国信贷市场不利的事情对每个人来说都是不利的。”
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BTC 的完美风暴?
' O! E ~6 M2 P& X加密货币领袖声称,这种可能的财政混乱和后果正是比特币存在的原因。 c" F8 `+ I6 d& F* S! N
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作为一种固定供应的数字资产,与美元等传统货币相比,它成为一种相对较好的价值储存手段。6 }$ _9 e$ y8 O, b& x/ M* f Y
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这些货币供应量无限,由各国央行随意印制。简而言之,BTC、黄金和其他稀缺商品的需求量将会很大。6 `$ h# |. a4 k0 M B8 Z
. X4 J# S0 v% SBitwise 首席信息官 Matt Hougan 对 Dalio 的警告作出回应 敦促用户“购买比特币”。2 t- O" k8 v0 j6 ?5 C
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Real Vision 的 Raoul Pal 也赞同 Hougan 的观点,添加在这种贬值情况下,只有技术和加密货币才是更好的对冲工具。
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2 n# Q7 n! h8 v# A# ~“在长期牛市中,贬值对冲只有两种表现显著优异:科技和加密货币。”
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尽管达利欧公开表示承认与拥有一些 BTC 相比,他更倾向于黄金。
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' L+ N! z2 G: I) k他表示,追踪黄金价格走势更容易,尤其是在冲突期间。但他发现追踪比特币价格走势却很难,因此得出结论,比特币仍然是一种投机行为。
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然而,对贝莱德的拉里·芬克来说,BTC 是数字黄金。事实上,他警告今年 4 月,如果财政债务得不到管理,人民币很容易取代美元成为世界储备货币。. k& u, P( {0 Z& x3 } v/ j
# W: d8 q$ K. r. @! E即便如此,财政部长斯科特·贝森特淡化与支出法案相关的债务问题。& A9 C+ P& a9 i' O' k
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“我们的 GDP 增长速度快于债务增长速度,这种趋势将持续到总统剩余的任期。”
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与此同时,Coinbase 分析师警告“大美丽法案”将债务上限提高了 5 万亿美元。
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0 W5 q( E6 Z: J& z( }3 U8 ?1 O结果,美国财政部可能会补充(从市场借钱)其主要现金账户或TGA(国库普通账户),并挤压流动性,拖累包括BTC在内的风险资产。
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2 H9 B/ J; z# [) z. D, j“TGA 的补充可能会在短期内消耗大盘的流动性,对所有风险资产构成明显的下行风险。”+ }: ]2 z+ ]% O, F9 v7 ^
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