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[虚拟币交流]
鲸鱼从交易所撤出 2 万 BTC：这对比特币的反弹意味着什么（转）
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关键要点* g* ~9 r$ q7 h/ O8 N
随着比特币已用量降至 52.9 万 BTC，比特币的卖方浪潮逐渐消退，与此同时，鲸鱼不断增持，交易所鲸鱼比例下降，净流量变为负值，为 -1.28 亿美元。如果卖方再次出现，11.2 万美元的价位还能守住吗？6 {, f5 ~. J7 k7 Y1 u( J
% G( q2 ?8 n) ^在达到 11.1 万美元的本地低点后，比特币[BTC]反弹至 117,421 美元，然后又回落至 115,411 美元的低点。& R# p, a9 b" S
b9 d" |0 D( e截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 115,601 美元，24 小时内上涨 2.45%，这表明上行压力正在增强。
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5 L# @- [! n2 e+ I: L2 u/ C但价格回升的背后原因是什么呢？( k8 E& E1 e& `' D, {
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比特币卖家潮逐渐消退! p( A+ D5 H8 y) G) `
据 CryptoQuant 报道分析师Axel Adler 表示，比特币的消费量（SMA-7d）急剧下降，每周平均值下滑至每天 529K BTC。( _' j, `# \9 i
8 x$ W% u8 ]" z& ?; d如此大幅的下跌表明，当前价格水平的主要卖家浪潮已经枯竭，卖家在市场上退了一步。
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7 k9 e2 @* ]9 ?$ Y6 p这主要是因为比特币近期表现惨淡导致出售动机减弱。- _$ f- Q; e% b7 b! @$ ]
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事实上，已实现利润在各个群体中均有所下降。长期持有者仅获利 7.2 万 BTC，而短期持有者尽管出现反弹，也仅获利 1.8 万 BTC。
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鲸鱼从交易所撤走代币
% M! {. e( A Z# K3 N* g0 V# o4 r随着比特币的波动，巨鲸已重新定位，减少了交易活动。) t6 v) E3 v9 k: P+ _, y& A5 R5 H
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CryptoQuant 数据显示，交易所鲸鱼比率跌至 12 天低点 0.43。该指标下降表明，与整体流量相比，向交易所发送 BTC 的鲸鱼数量有所减少。% _- \4 c. U6 j" D8 B8 w
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通常情况下，这种下跌反映了大量的囤币行为，鲸鱼们会将比特币转移到私人钱包，而不是准备出售。这种情绪在比特币巨鲸中尤为普遍。
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3 @! j; ?/ T$ Y0 O( ^& P& ~根据 Checkonchain 的数据，持有量超过 1 万 BTC 的超级鲸鱼和交易所的余额变化为 -20.36 万 BTC，表明提现量大于存入量。大户持有者正在增持，而非抛售。. O8 g9 }8 }& T' y; e9 Y8 J( b* \
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从历史上看，大股东在增持的同时减少抛售活动，往往预示着价格将面临更大的上行压力，而这往往是价格上涨的前兆。
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压力缓解能否提振BTC？7 w2 v1 Q1 k' l1 H d
根据AMBCrypto的分析，由于抛售压力下降而鲸鱼增持保持不变，比特币近期出现反弹。
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结果，King Crypto 的净流量变为负值，达到 -1.28 亿美元的低点，这明显是积极增持的迹象。
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话虽如此，如果鲸鱼继续吸收供应，比特币可能会收回 117,000 美元并测试 119,600 美元。+ h3 T! q j2 g$ ~: S) V- c. V
) c4 T+ G+ G& \5 R然而，如果卖家回归，BTC 可能会重新测试 112,000 美元的支撑区域。
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