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[虚拟币交流]
山寨币市值蒸发 3840 亿美元：如果没有比特币轮动，该行业能否复苏？（转）
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山寨币市场在 10 月 7 日遭受了最严重的打击，导致总市值在图表上急剧下降。
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& E2 G- ?( w! G; g& f/ e根据 TradingView 上的山寨币市值图表（不包括稳定币），比特币 [BTC]， 和以太坊 [ETH]从峰值到 11 月 21 日，市场总共损失了 3840 亿美元。0 B2 F( [! j) A% ^& p5 Q
) r2 ~9 ~2 e$ N. R U- C上一次出现大量资金外流是在 2024 年 12 月至 2025 年 4 月期间，持续了四个月，期间市场下跌了 53%。
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2 T9 s6 [1 _* I0 u; I0 l3 V% Y+ T当前的经济衰退是否会遵循同样的规律尚不清楚，但 AMBCrypto 分析了可能决定潜在逆转的因素。& \/ a+ H+ j7 s
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山寨币季节性指数
4 x. F" I( q$ L资本流入市场一直是决定哪些资产或行业大幅上涨的关键因素之一。- M9 {# }# Q& F. E# a* h4 S$ Z
* b: L" J5 W" k8 S此前，这种趋势曾支撑了隐私代币持续数周的看涨前景。类似的模式也可能适用于其他加密货币以及比特币整体。
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3 h; y6 i* o/ T! q0 F' u! R% J山寨币季节性指数能够反映当前市场的资金轮动情况。目前，该指数显示大部分资金仍然集中在比特币上。
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0 E& P$ O* n$ ]! j" a8 `3 V当资金重新流入山寨币，指数从 75 点及以上进入图表的上部区域时，山寨币可能会开始上涨。
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根据 CoinMarketCap 的数据，上一次确认的山寨币行情发生在 2024 年 12 月 4 日，当时该指数攀升至 87。
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然而，下一步的重大举措仍不确定，Alphractal 数据显示，大量山寨币的价格仍维持在 40-50 的范围内，表明市场将继续保持中性。
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链上活动仍然至关重要6 x8 }% s' r! j% Z
虽然链下资金流动很重要，但了解去中心化应用程序的链上活动仍然至关重要。
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c5 d/ b6 Y% S, \6 Q这是通过总锁定价值 (TVL) 来衡量的，它反映了市场中各个协议之间流通的流动性总量。
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7 [ V) u z) p. J5 N- o) m( |+ oTVL 的增加表明投资者正在将更多资产锁定到协议中，从而增强了市场信心，支持了看涨前景，并表明了更长期的承诺。1 d4 v/ c3 O8 g; s
7 t% b% e8 ^# a( Y# U: F, v目前，整体市场已出现小幅反弹，TVL 达到 1190.9 亿美元。5 j: U* V o. Z" q. S, |" R- h
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此外，多个区块链上稳定币供应量的逐步增加表明，许多投资者仍然持观望态度，继续偏爱稳定币而不是山寨币。8 h- H0 h& b) u
' s5 L* i. Q ^1 d% d2 R, Z; J3 ]4 B比特币与山寨币的去相关性
! p" u9 I# ] c( k$ n- O" W比特币与山寨币之间的相关性是评估山寨币反弹可能性的重要指标。
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当比特币和山寨币的走势相似时，这表明资金正在同时流入或流出这两个领域。; J7 U; E3 U, U. X
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对于持续的加密货币上涨行情而言，随着市场趋势的上升，一定程度的去相关性往往是必要的。+ j, s2 c+ C. a( X5 R3 C
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这意味着当山寨币价格上涨时，比特币的上涨速度要么放缓，要么走势相反。这种现象证实了投资者关注点正在转向山寨币。1 X& N, w' \; T8 o7 q( N
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从图表上可以清楚地看出，在 8 月 25 日至 10 月 10 日期间，山寨币（绿色标记）的资金流入量比比特币（蓝色标记）更为强劲。
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最后想说的话0 Z7 Z2 {0 d5 |' J: n
目前，山寨币已进入中性阶段，大多数山寨币的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 均在 40-50 的范围内。# F' u& r6 y, l( A0 m+ T; P, \
经历了动荡的十月份之后，山寨币市场遭受了最严重的打击之一。, X( M: L+ [8 Y9 s4 p: O2 E* D% ~
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