Array
(
[fid] => 6974
[description] => 专注于币圈最新最快资讯，数字货币应用及知识普及
[password] =>
[icon] => b1/common_6974_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 1
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 1
[extcredits3] => 10
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6974
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6937,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6982,6951,6984,6975,6895,6845,6879,1121,6974
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] => 实习版主1
[rules] =>
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[1590] => 论坛公告
[1752] => 公司优惠
[1603] => 虚拟币交流
[1753] => 数字钱包
[1754] => 虚拟币存提
[1755] => 交易所
[1655] => 虚拟币资讯
[1756] => 银行卡
[1757] => 第三方支付
[1760] => 币圈大佬
[1758] => 科技前沿
[1759] => 天策嗨聊
[1661] => 入驻合作
)
[icons] => Array
(
[1590] =>
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] =>
[1661] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[1590] => 1
[1752] =>
[1603] =>
[1753] =>
[1754] =>
[1755] =>
[1655] =>
[1756] =>
[1757] =>
[1760] =>
[1758] =>
[1759] => 1
[1661] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] =>
[seodescription] =>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 0
[imagewidth] => 300
[imageheight] => 250
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 0
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6729
[type] => forum
[name] => 虚拟币讨论大厅
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 3
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 29749
[posts] => 483892
[todayposts] => 1
[yesterdayposts] => 119
[rank] => 2
[oldrank] => 2
[lastpost] => 2808575 Xeltox被加拿大监管机构处以1.26亿美元创纪录罚款（转） 1771862744 龙飞凤舞789
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 21
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 1
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 3
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2732 小时
本月在线: 67 小时
|
|
Polymarket 把这个中间件直接收掉后，等于掌控了大量第三方工具、交易 bot、数据仪表盘、聚合网站、研究账号的底层数据来源。
0 M0 Z. C- p7 n; A# \" ~
; B7 Q+ }, R) J& o" m这是 Polymarket 第二笔收购，之前第一笔是收购美国持牌衍生品交易所 QCEX。3 m) ~% U0 o1 S: X& G
: _7 S- ~3 M- i# h$ z每笔收购的目标非常明确。# f. h; ?, E. } L' |
# R% [$ O8 j2 x) \$ V9 m
1️⃣ 我们可以发现，当一个平台做大之后，就会向上下游进行扩张，控制整个产业链。1 E0 P v2 a( [; a. m
4 O" D# Y/ L0 [- k' q3 Y2 d( c
这种扩张分为两个方向：
5 p( Q. _ a/ h5 M6 x F7 M `# l N
一种是横向扩张，跨赛道/跨品类。
4 o9 D& w; F& W# |" N3 G: T
$ c( s6 @0 q1 s1 s9 S/ [比如Polymarket收购 QCEX，就是补足合规 衍生品能力，打入传统金融、机构市场。$ `) t; P+ |" c; O6 z( Q- [: U
7 \0 C0 a5 D" s' N" O与 MLS、NHL、Substack 合作，则是事件品类扩张（体育/媒体）。
$ L2 B* K6 Z# I* h5 p3 M0 z. t5 ?$ M$ j9 g: R- ^6 S' k
横向扩张的目标是从预测市场变成综合事件交易平台，对标传统交易所 博彩 资讯。1 m# A0 I/ S/ [. H% F
- Q; P" W, ?: x' E- q第二种是纵向扩张，产业链上下游控制。
& d8 n2 O$ B9 E: |! Z2 l# {
* ~* x2 R0 n/ D/ C上游：数据/API 基础设施（收购 Dome）。" p0 C; {( k# U* R- @# @
; A# l# y. \! h; }中游：交易引擎、做市、流动性。6 Z$ P1 Y c' l- \
3 L$ |4 y6 d! S3 p! A
下游：用户端、工具、分析、投研、跟单、机器人。
- U( ]* L k7 G: p2 [" x
+ ?/ i4 Q! r0 Y; f5 R, \ u- q收购 Dome 就是拿下了数据接入层，控制了开发者生态入口，把碎片化生态“串”在自己的 API 上。
8 n8 g! W! S9 v5 T: _1 A6 {' b4 t s+ w3 g
这个意义非常重大。% M5 b+ c/ H8 c0 |9 a4 L
0 h# c. `3 s" m* u2️⃣ 我一直认为预测市场赛道可以类比meme币赛道。. o8 b0 |' \9 W' b
+ {* U& f* F! b& }% umeme币生态中的很多数据分析平台和交易工具都可以在预测市场中再做一遍。
4 p, W, g; P# T$ L, p) ?- s- F1 T" N9 V$ Y1 w! @
这里可以列举很多预测市场所需要的工具：
5 A2 U' z( f, O1 o
3 F3 t) k5 p) S$ f6 e9 I y数据看板：跨平台行情、概率走势、资金流向、巨鲸追踪。4 }4 D7 V9 ]0 {4 R4 f) ]+ H8 t
. D# q+ E5 Y" r. `% u
量化/机器人：套利、网格、跟单、AI 概率模型。- k1 k. @) t; F: ?3 O, |
% c# A& E( v3 v; y
投研工具：事件归因、胜率回测、风险计算器。
6 P6 r! O* l. j, |( T6 ? w" K( K/ E3 Q6 W' `
基础设施：做市机器人、流动性聚合、清算工具。
' W" }+ d* ? {9 ~. ~& o: U
0 |# B, ?+ [# x( C- OPolymarket 已有几百个第三方工具，收购 Dome 正是为了统一入口、收编生态。 ]! x3 w+ l a6 D- ], l" D$ [
3 G1 O7 s# p% yPolymarket只是把台子搭起来了，但是很多服务还没有补足。
5 P9 k: k8 D$ P- Y8 ?' F5 z" p/ e0 M+ R& G6 L8 K! t
这些服务并不需要Polymarket自己去做，只需要培育生态，让第三方做就行了。# T5 s: d$ E3 @; V3 t
+ o0 p/ [/ B# I% b. o
这些工具可以帮 Polymarket 补足数据分析、辅助用户决策。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
