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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

2 |6 w8 R9 E! _. h; H8 P
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
9 c' }1 p7 z0 |10A23456789( H. U' Z2 c8 {9 `+ ]9 f2 d  `8 u
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
3 i$ t1 O' z% i7 M-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1469 E* P. C: Q- ]5 k) e; t
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1331 m1 O! ?* h$ N9 u3 M7 d& z0 V
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
, {$ C: i% F! t-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108& Q' r! ^7 y( u7 g' `% ~" h
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
+ D+ f! g' X! Y- |-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
4 _) x) t7 \5 x7 _-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074+ S, d* q7 y0 P  P% q5 j2 d; ]/ I
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
) V1 N& J" p7 l, W1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
0 U- b" I" G8 T+ }: y  [4 D2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
( U8 {1 t" y3 |5 Z0 A3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.0361 R2 V# b8 |" l
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028  z" `" ~( J, ^$ E# \7 Q6 R
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
+ G0 {6 W# J& L. S7 N  c6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
  L5 W- R+ U5 R9 g, Z7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.0074 n- ?! E: ^4 ^/ F* ?
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.0016 f4 W1 t% |/ A- w1 e- @
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
: O. z$ C" F* E' f10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
' r: e1 g, ]' _0 F' |11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
# f6 x8 A  H; v5 m, H12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9855 }; j3 t7 g* {3 |  {! h
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982+ a0 G+ n+ e- l8 m7 u2 Y! e
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980- D8 N/ Y2 C1 `6 m% k7 q
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9791 q7 }7 v( {2 B, U# s. f
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979+ I8 i& {0 \1 ?3 I/ J/ c, g
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979. ?" D) \% R. w; s1 q
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979" N. s6 H# a2 C- r4 R
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
, R+ m* E( B2 g& r+ G20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983% u; u) Z8 E8 `( p
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986" p8 P4 }! p7 e/ o6 `# |! Y
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
) M. \$ G3 j9 p. T  c2 e23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993/ Q, Q; b( d- z7 F" n4 o: r! ?
24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997$ x' F, ?, g  [* _4 E# P
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002; P. P$ j8 r( _9 C2 w% ~

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

% v# `5 L. s' k' ?
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類8 t, }5 y* a* @. e
10A23456789
  D: G  K" r' }9 q/ P: V0 s-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0956 X) w0 }' \" h# A1 D; P- C
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
1 F/ T" y, e6 [2 g8 U6 K-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069* k) o" u5 e! [! l6 h
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
/ Q! y6 g% \. r. m! M0 D4 D7 G6 [' r-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
, T6 K3 O! P: R-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032: F& Z$ w/ _, Y% k; e" a' s" a
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
8 D; d( i/ A6 e, J-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010
8 ^/ J7 s8 V% E" Z00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0008 D2 O- H( w! }8 j; }
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
1 U& d. g' N9 V- a, s) P2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.0193 k+ G( G; o) L6 D) ~* Z  G
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
& M6 g8 ^; q: \) y) l2 s0 T6 t. y4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.0368 x& G/ G% r7 O+ `3 Z/ u
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
4 _5 l' ]: p, p& r3 c% n6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051, T( h1 ?  X" b9 V9 {
7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0575 m& ?  g5 i7 g
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063( a' y; y  a* h
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.0682 k  E7 u  _5 J7 a
10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
+ ^2 E% `; R2 V) f3 g! b5 Q1 l11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
0 U5 f1 j3 N. q3 V! s$ G12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
8 h; ]- P5 a  ^. y13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082. y% k" x1 Q( k5 m# k+ R
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084% r' }) T9 Y: X! @( y4 N+ V
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
5 c- T5 P8 r" T16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085$ X/ B+ f7 F% S4 R: ?, ?' f% T
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
5 }, P* r& C- t5 `$ ^" x& \8 D18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085
' @2 a0 g3 |6 o9 H19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083: N" X7 w# K* O8 Z
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081' i% @: w& b8 X0 ?5 l4 ~, ]& I
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
3 H7 N2 q3 c3 E" ?" p/ }3 J6 I; Q+ f22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075/ u) c% e4 j: z5 [- [2 v* s, m
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
) i( t4 l- m5 r5 d% \: M$ W24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067( W3 u8 b. K: Z1 b+ H! X
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
8 b# {: b0 Y- f- T" Z

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

! j2 l2 Y3 a" Q8 ~" E9 u) N7 s
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
1 ~) `  Q) [/ u- x; c9 U( D10A23456789
$ p6 L$ \$ L8 n: o0 F1 {-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122. Y9 c8 C4 q- I8 r- T9 }
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
% k$ x. I9 G- ?: D% X' t-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
# t2 m5 T  `& b$ w7 E6 o: P-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166* a8 |; f4 l6 q5 N! z% g, ~$ p
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
) k& N/ N. B# g1 B3 f9 s-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193  p; v9 {8 a5 O7 m  C/ d6 `5 S
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2055 M; D/ B3 E  p; t7 \$ A
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.2179 F8 V7 d# C' K5 d/ E
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.2281 m+ z. s. Q& }4 l7 a* ~4 l/ {# }
1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239) W; `5 H  K5 g/ K
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249; G' @- z* k  p3 a. G
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.2583 W$ b; f0 ^2 D- w  \1 V+ Y3 w, a) V
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266$ A$ y$ P9 d& m* L* Z
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
/ _: x: |& }  b5 j, d- H# X7 [6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281' K- w$ l! Z2 Q' L; a: p) ?
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
, Z' z# w, c/ K" Q8 n8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
% y% b2 |+ D$ |# v! ?- ?. j. _, b9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.2981 I4 z# g5 }3 }2 Z
10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
( f1 m: K0 \' e4 p# y11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
& _1 B7 L( O3 n8 L: s4 R$ j- ~12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308! o5 ]9 O; s( ]& z* n* [
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3109 V7 d+ w8 G# ~! c/ j
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
- \7 m* J, c+ J, _8 c! U6 A15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3110 e. e) a) N( `' X
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
' v" A* @8 H. l2 `& R2 z, U3 e0 u17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.3108 a, }$ {, f( y1 ~0 O; `
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
0 A/ i7 c$ ^8 x: |. K19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
# b2 S0 q) q* }6 F: ^2 J! V( U1 u20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
1 @/ J" T4 G# U# w- {4 z21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
- F2 R3 h; _) T6 h/ z9 g22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
8 G; s0 @0 ]3 @+ R$ J9 k- i5 c: ^23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
2 ]4 H# a% K# w% L* f% s# |24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279  ]3 u' b: t% N" h# O5 u, P4 |/ f
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272# H, R! e- D7 Z; G$ v

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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