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冷风说币：连续画门 多空都能获利 2022.08.31
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市场消息
从9月开始，美联储的量化紧缩QT即将全速前进，由6至8月每月缩表上限475亿美元提高至950亿美元。
按此前公布的计划进程，美联储9月将最高减持600亿美国国债及350亿美元的其他债券，与前几个月相比，美联储缩表进程翻倍。
其实，美联储早在6月就正式开启缩表模式了，只不过相对于美联储9万亿美元的资产负债表，每月缩表400多亿不那么显山显水罢了，市场的目光几乎都聚焦在加息身上。
作为收紧货币政策的重要举措，量化紧缩（QT）是美联储手中关键的“收水”武器，并且在经过3个月的“过渡期”后，此项武器即将升级。
和快速推进的加息进程相比，市场对于缩表的未知恐惧更大。一旦9万亿美元的庞大资产负债表激进收缩，对流动性的冲击不容小觑。
大幅度加息叠加翻倍缩表上限，使得市场流动性越来越低，投资者的避险情绪越来越高，这种情况可能令9月份的金融市场更加“不寒而栗”！近期美股市场、加密货币市场跌跌不休的行情走势，似乎也在印证，寒冬已经悄然而至。
行情分析
BTC短线支撑19500-19800美元，短线压力20500-20800美元。 美三大股指继续全线下跌，外围环境不利于多头。大饼昨天先扬后抑，目前在19500-20500美元区间形成了箱体震荡，与上一波20800-21800美元走势相似。大家可以短线高抛低吸，最好以高空为主。
对于市场行情的3种预测冷风昨天已经告诉了大家，各种重要点位也已经写给了各位，请大家好好研读。这两天的连续画门行情构建了一个双底，对于短期币价起到了支撑作用，目前需要关注20500是否能有效突破，三种情况都告诉大家了，照着做就行。压力不能追涨，等待回踩支撑或者突破后的机会。大趋势并没有扭转，如果能有效突破20500，关键压力关注21800-22000。
ETH短线支撑1450-1500美元，短线压力1580-1650美元。以太这2天虽然走势强于大饼，但这也只是最后的挣扎了，离9月6日越近，以太风险越大，继续建议逢高减仓，包括现货。以太关键点位在1350美元，守不住，就有可能再回1000美元。
短线上以太坊一直强势于大饼，小级别处于上涨趋势中，目前在1600预压，同步大饼即可。关于三种形态走势，以太点位不如比特币走的标准，冷风会每天更新新的点位做调整。
第一：短线走震荡上行，1510-1530支撑，1600-1630压力。
第二：跌破1510-1530支撑区间，关注是否能构成1480 1430双底或者1360附近的头肩底走势。
第三：回踩在1510-1530支撑区间之上，短线上涨继续维持，突破新高，可以看到1630 1650压力，关键压力还是1700。
主流币跟随大饼波动，按照大饼节奏操作。
山寨币三个原则，大饼稳，板块热，龙头强。冷风认为山寨币炒作有二点，一是大饼要稳。二是要抓住主线。山寨币出现分化走势，大家可以适度短多。目前的行情是大饼不稳，没有热点，没有龙头，属于三无的群蛇共舞，因此不要抱太大的期待。冷风还是认为山寨币的风险依然很大，大饼如果下破19000美元，那么许多山寨币还会有腰斩的可能，因此不要追高，反弹不动了，还是要降低现货仓位，现在真的没有到屯币的时候。再提醒一次，大饼未见底之前，不要重仓买入山寨币。 来源：金色财经 |
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