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[虚拟币交流]
赵长鹏谈比特币减半:减产一年后可能会不断爆发历史新高(9日转)
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比特币第四次减半已经进入倒数200天以内,预计2024年4月25日发生,而此大议题也2 X$ f5 u. ?& \) t8 S. Z' {
引来币安创办人赵长鹏的密切关注,CZ在币安广场发文谈及他过去的经验与预测,他认为比特币减半行情不会在& m1 H: E- F, t+ B; E# V
当下直接发生,而是在一年后才会发酵,他也预言届时将创下比特币历史新高:
9 z& D) q3 V% l; \' v$ U* q+ M“比特币减半会发生什么是?我无法预测未来,但我根据过去三次简单的经验总结:
) Y* O- I$ Y2 P4 k5 r5 @ V1 P$ T1.减半前的几个月将有无数的闲聊、新闻、焦虑、炒作、希望等等
3 y9 Z" w3 p; j% @% N7 q2.减半后的第二天比特币不会涨,人们会问到底为什么?
) D. C2 D- s, k# P: `3.减半后的一年将触及多个ATH(历史新高),人们会问为什么?
$ W3 Q8 J" Q/ w9 n; R# _+ o# W但这不是已经验证的因果关系,历史不能验证未来
" ^* y" u- W1 k4 W# g) G多次提及2025年是关键
" A2 a8 g6 u) M7 r事实上,过去赵长鹏也在推特上多次表达他对比特币减半以及未来币价的意见,他认为价格是无法预测的,比特! t# N( |$ f* h% c, m
币将在2025重返年市,甚至可能突破2021年底的历史新高(即6.87万美元),CZ当时也提及,2013、2017、20218 e5 E5 l: O# ] F
年牛市都有许多相似之处,而后续CZ也于7月的AMA上提及,新的比特币现货ETF可能是一个除了比特币减半以$ l) n" _! D7 a8 p& u1 C
外,值得关注的新题材。* I( d, x& J% v: D
而在五月时,摩根大通也做出了比特币减半的相关预测,认为比特币至少会涨至45,000美元,且将是由减半行情5 i8 y# W" w4 F& z6 Y/ r+ J: s2 z$ N
带动的涨势,但摩根大通近期也警告高涨的美国国债殖利率,以及中性利率提高的风险,分析师也仅告殖利率过+ F# g2 \3 |6 B( E
高可能会引发金融灾难,因此要如何撑过现在直到下次行情到来,可能机构优先决策的关键。* \/ q% g6 U4 v- [/ [( ]; L
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