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[lastpost] => 2647495 比特币突破64000美元/枚,日内涨0.14%(转) 1714887012 ruifu2024
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当前离线
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比特币减半即将到来,距离减半仅剩约10天。面对即将到来的比特币减半,我们应该如何应对未来的行情呢?
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( l% T: x# D8 g. ^1 [0 P4 Q( @7 K5 r7 M4 `
. V( o5 T! \1 L3 @: X# t# G) i F 根据过去几次比特币减半的历史数据来看,通常比特币在减半后会先出现一波下跌,然后经过数月的盘整后,会迎来, q7 f7 A4 Y: \- s0 }
9 @6 H2 c5 p5 @上涨行情并创造新的历史高点。根据目前比特币的日线图观察,我们可以看到比特币价格目前正在进行三角盘整,意味著比0 y4 n+ S' `! O' T
& y( H3 }$ X- f' f特币可能会迎来向上或向下的行情。
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$ @! G- A: a" t此外,我们还可以从MACD和牛市平均线中获取一些信息。目前MACD仍处于盘整阶段,而牛市平均线已达到51000 - 53000美元。. d* q+ P9 o1 _* c
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虽然比特币ETF的加持可能会使行情产生有所不同的变化,但我个人仍认为比特币可能会迎来一波回调阶段,然后在减半后进行盘
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( E3 m2 T& e3 b8 W) z0 p整,最终突破向上。
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我认为比特币的OTC市场对此有著重大影响。比特币的产出一直源自于矿工,而他们一直在OTC市场向大型机构出售比特币。2 O+ h5 Y) D/ w8 J' a) i
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最近的报告显示,随著比特币需求的增加和卖方流动性的下降,比特币的流动存量已经下降到历史最低水平。分析师估计,目前
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; p, u- X2 ?8 M5 R比特币的卖方流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长。
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根据以上信息,比特币的流动性库存只能满足未来6-12个月的需求增长,这意味著如果比特币的价格要大幅上涨,先决条件便是需1 w* t- b) A1 x0 v; S1 g" M0 C$ i
! O$ y/ @: @& f+ N要清空所有的库存,才能导致比特币价格上涨。随著比特币ETF对比特币的需求不断增加,我认为6-12个月只是伴随著现有情况而作8 h/ M1 z6 W7 [7 \( g L
0 `% Y3 i, t0 C1 y- A0 s: I$ o出的估算,因此我们除了关注比特币价格外,还应该关注比特币ETF的供求情况和表现。( r& V# h, l$ I) p/ G1 E
0 C$ O5 n8 @% B+ _! V综合以上信息,我认为比特币可能会像过去的行情一样,在减半后先迎来一波回调,然后等待OTC市场的比特币库存不足时,价格自% K+ \$ c _' B1 S3 C" x% Q+ Y2 L
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然会上涨。届时,各大型机构将无法在任何OTC市场中购买比特币,可能会转而在现货市场进行购买,这可能会推动比特币价格上涨。
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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总在线: 3388 小时
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当前离线
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