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历史长河的逆流,正在深刻改变传统货币和传统金融认知。
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许多朋友很不理解,为什么2024才刚刚走过1/4,不仅多数大宗价
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格在上涨,而且,类货币性质的黄金价格和比特币价格更迎来急速
4 l- f* H/ J2 m* E' }8 ~2 O) K9 _
猛涨(黄金价格今年至今涨幅超过15%,比特币价格涨幅更是超过35%)?
3 ~' J( q, D# C( P4 C7 j* n; y( J) j& V/ M6 b* p
对此进行回答,之于事后解释,机构给出的答案是美联储预期要降息。2 m0 W! Y' `3 W# s
3 g3 d6 X& V1 g1 z+ e1 a这样的答案,错将次要逻辑代替主要逻辑,逻辑主次不分。
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- q0 e9 S, Y0 z, v+ J比如美联储预期要降息这一解释,要知道,从2022年3月美联储启动疯
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狂加息至今,美联储的事实降息一次也没有,明晃晃的疯狂加息却是加
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* \" G2 {0 {* H5 Z3 K了525多个基点——但是,在这一疯狂加息的区间,从2022年3月开始,
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8 ?6 s$ V* z9 f" q( a黄金价格是大幅上涨的,比特币价格则是疯狂上涨的。
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4 K$ k6 x% r) U" q. ^9 |+ X: @当然,近期中东危机的升级信号,这也助涨了短期黄金和有色金属的拉
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9 W; j) _5 C, U升,但这事实依然无法解释,为什么黄金和比特币在过去两年美联储超
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高利率之下依然能够逆势大涨。
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回答这一切,追溯这一切的逻辑源起,必须进行宏观升维,必须将其置% ^ X* [; d P6 B
8 ?' }/ C7 O5 x0 C* Y. ^+ ]9 `于大历史周期已然逆变的研判框架之下——这是我今年春节长文对全域资
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1 A0 V" q2 a: L: F. @3 I产价格走势的研判逻辑源起,这同样也是我过去大半年资产配置收益显著. [/ O) ]2 u' Y; G
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跑赢市场的实战逻辑源起。
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& S: _8 P7 R, [! t2 a7 y& U之于大历史周期,过去两年,全球化共识在加速撕裂,且这一加速撕裂之
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9 t+ N8 ?% x- c* L2 z& w/ D于中长期,本质是不可逆的(当然,不排除短期或中短期有缓和的可能性)。0 l% J# A9 z9 _5 R8 O
2 t5 |6 p$ A7 @0 d8 _而之于逻辑派生,全球化共识的加速撕裂,必然会派生出全球货币共识的加
. `% @6 Q. }7 }8 U Q, d7 C) A0 ~/ I4 S8 Z7 w1 z# p. t& h
速崩裂,尤其是当今全球两大经济体的中美货币。
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确认中美货币正在加速撕裂,除了最近两年天朝加速启动去美元化之外(与
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; k- X8 n% ^3 f, }全球多数新兴经济体启动本币贸易结算),还有更重要的维度,且这一更重
) ^5 _4 ? x# F4 V% I5 }
, e& k* `% v, l$ K8 O, h) g要的维度,事实正是春节后黄金和比特币均创下历史纪录的核心逻辑所在。2 k6 W+ y7 d8 |; b8 n- R& M3 O5 U
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