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[lastpost] => 2651276 以太坊现货ETF即将出现？美国证券交易委员会将于本周宣布决定（转） 1716294290 舞出精彩
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[虚拟币交流]
美国滞胀风险吓退加密市场 比特币以太坊双双退至悬崖边缘（转）
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加密市场目前似乎正处于悬崖边，正在争论该走哪个方向，这也意味着更多的看涨和看跌言论将涌入市场。+ q7 P6 o9 j# M) \5 P
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而由于人们再次开始担心美国滞胀，加密货币先表现出下跌的趋势。% D4 {4 o& k, { w4 [
8 s4 A, [) R0 L2 ~/ |( ^$ Q根据CoinDesk数据，截至发稿时，比特币交易价格接近 62400 美元，24小时内下跌2.4%，较3月的历史高点则已
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累计跌去15%。以太坊下跌4%，至3200 美元以下，衡量流动性的指数CoinDesk 20下跌 2.6%，至 2170点。9 B4 m% q! Y& m$ E. o: S
5 Z+ ~2 y* K* _! s% x$ P' A上周的美国GDP报告显示，继上一季度增长3.4%之后，其今年第一季度的年化增长率降至1.6%。与此同时，美
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联储关键通胀指标PCE指数显示，今年前三个月的物价年化率从2023年最后一个季度的1.8%升至3.4%。
/ [* K4 F/ Y6 O+ o; g# D+ W) u }% z& M( b" \, i; [. U" }
GDP增速放缓加上通胀粘性增加让市场再次看到滞胀出现的可能性，并进一步削弱了美联储降息的可能性。预测0 {+ L. J$ d t+ b2 t. J
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平台Polymarket上关于美联储货币政策的押注中，大多数交易者现在认为今年不降息的可能性为35%，较一周前
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" J) F: y; k: ^, S7 O/ o" b0 E% B的26%明显上升。
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" `6 E( r l6 s% e4 ~CoinDesk分析师Omkar Godbole表示，比特币牛市持续的关键是美国财政部即将发布的季度再融资公告，其将说明
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) a8 \+ \1 _" I3 D/ o一季度美国ZF的借款需求以及财政部普通账户中持有的余额，或将预示着美国接下来的财政政策方向。/ I9 I: E' C* h- n' j: }2 B
3 c! ?# i& W/ A" z还在乐观的一些人
! N0 H/ G+ S! e) P3 f/ _这一前景导致加密货币市场情绪明显变得低迷很多。上周六，加密分析师Peter Brandt分析称，比特币的牛市
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+ Q" H: D3 Y; `# ]( i9 a5 b! K$ p周期已经呈现出指数级衰减的模式，80%推动牛市的能量已经消失。! s- k. K. J6 w
9 X" x2 b# e6 s- f4 |他估计比特币当前周期的顶部约为70000美元，而3月时这一价格已经被触及。但他也怀疑比特币仍有可能还未看
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) k. M2 t. ?3 ?$ s H R到价格触顶。1 m* l( F0 i, @
) e$ S' ^, U7 w1 J与此同时，一些分析师还指出本轮比特币上涨之中存在一些更加积极的因素。其中一个关键点在于本轮周期中，; A* h: `6 f8 l5 w: o
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不同于以往散户为主的推动，机构显然通过比特币ETF贡献了极大的力量。
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& N* v' M; a) Z此外，还有人则指出，比特币的减半事件导致目前该资产的通胀率已经降至1%以下，全球每天只能开采450个比
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特币，这意味着比特币比终极对冲工具——黄金更加稀有。这也让一些投资人坚信比特币比黄金拥有更强的避险) }2 W: ] q; G3 y( Y
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属性。
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