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[lastpost] => 2658370 比特币(BTC)走势分析:分析师预测跌至54美元 是否时机已到(转) 1718898573 不洗脸都帅
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币(BTC)将进入 300 天牛市?这一关键指标揭示了什么(转)
[复制链接]
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加密货币分析师Axel Adler表示,比特币 [BTC]可能会进入300 天的牛市。来自CryptoQuant的短期持有者利润数据显示,牛市正如火如荼地进行。
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* U% O8 d6 u2 `目前价格仅比两个月前的 73.7 万美元高点低 4.2%,且减半事件已经过去,购买压力可能呈上升趋势。/ ~8 I5 O6 v- C. j& _9 M3 v8 U
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未平仓合约表明价格还有更大的上涨空间。! m9 q+ W' }& [- j8 R, z
& G! W- l' B! `1 X7 n7 @: D5 }评估之前的峰值以及对未来的预测
0 B, l/ D. X4 S短期持有人花费产出利润率 (STH SOPR) 的 90 天 SMA 在 2018 年 1 月达到峰值 1.064,在 2021 年 3 月达到峰值 1.057。这表明 STH 利润峰值区间为 1.064-1.057。
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' ~+ n* @8 C) K- i _截至发稿时,STH SOPR 的 90 天移动平均线为 1.015。
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这表明上涨空间更大,而且顶部很可能尚未到来。此外,SOPR 90DMA 达到 1.015 与周期峰值之间有 291 天。
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# c- J& X% n% l: ^# {* d然而,2020-21 周期中相同值之间仅相差 105 天。因此,我们可能会经历三到十二个月的牛市。. D/ r+ q0 u2 B. R" k2 ^
该分析师还指出,近期持仓量7日移动平均线仅上涨9%。
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7 h# u1 k5 _7 @1 h6 E8 m相比之下,2024 年 1 月的涨幅为 20%,2021 年的多次 OI 7DMA 变动也接近 20%。
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综合起来,这两项观察结果都支持比特币市场才刚刚开始反弹的观点。
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' X, q/ X8 Y6 L7 W+ Y/ F突破 ATH 后需要注意的阻力位是多少?& d" w% ?0 O1 e( z4 W
局部范围(紫色)和不平衡(白色)都被令人信服地打破了。如果这种势头持续下去,73,700 美元的高点可能很快就会被扫除。, _+ B% C; P+ G8 n
* `% m/ m6 `/ U! y/ B tRSI 尚未突破 70,这将是 BTC 在历史高点附近占据看涨主导地位的强烈信号。
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1 q$ u; o1 i6 A( [CMF 飙升至 +0.05 以上,表明资本大量流入和需求增加。
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' L9 B" h2 h+ S" [4 V斐波那契扩展位(浅HS)显示 79.2 万美元、8.81 万美元和 9.7 万美元是下一个需要关注的阻力位。
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