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[lastpost] => 2795816 从周期博弈到范式切换，下一个十年加密市场将如何定义？（转） 1768006093 22301
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1 k5 W+ `# m. K" o( ?- ~ 中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，; v1 k1 r l' N# v; \8 N
$ P# T# @, z( {. {: |" G% Z3 h3 ^' c" ]
形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于
% N3 x- e& [( O! V" | I6 |! u$ l |. j2 K' B* _5 W
逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政/ j+ {0 @: \0 S: }0 I
) N* e+ g! l4 m4 c+ |9 w* ~策的确定性。 W! ], G [ U, n
4 l; g6 D' b; V) L1 N 中信证券主要观点如下：9 [* j6 v. E. j: e% v5 d# p
+ L n7 E* K! C% {
加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。
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" @4 u% \3 V( v: t; o6 j+ |! Q 2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现: h$ G; i7 H; G/ r3 k
{/ x# w- A% i9 ~: Q$ ~/ W不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。# e7 W0 M& W; d7 [
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从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。! x3 ~6 [1 ]; @. E$ }
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。! L: ~+ w! m9 w' |4 z
& ^4 N! F$ g' I) ]0 j' G; ? 短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。 G: k- Q* Z2 K" o3 p/ L, A
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我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性9 l* `; {8 S$ w+ r0 Q3 x. \
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共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。. |; t5 X2 K6 i3 G- j/ O: ~
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长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。+ o" c2 Y) D3 U( T
( D8 U+ q; l! Z- h, u& Q 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣- _4 p+ v' X. D3 W; z& ]. o
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势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。, E. b: L8 X2 _$ a5 y" @/ C( d
% ^" N3 _% ^" @' `4 P 展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。" j* ~, h- h- A! z# P/ ~& Z
% ~5 v4 q' y1 ~' ^ 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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) C S/ A' T X8 M F) i 风险因素：$ P# l* z0 P- P& F1 Z1 n
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。% b6 A7 b4 X; I; S `2 W M. C
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