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[虚拟币交流]
模因股票交易策略,称投资者没有对“最重要的事情”给予足够的关注(转)
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亿万富翁对冲基金传奇人物雷·达里奥 (Ray Dalio) 认为,投资者并没有关注模因股票交易中的明显因素。
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达利欧说在 十 上的一篇新帖子中,总有一个“当前最流行的模因”,每个人都相信它,但它注定会失去其地位。
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0 {5 V* I8 m: H* K- T. q这些模因通常是基于对过去发生事件的推断和情绪化考量。此外,大多数投资者通常不考虑市场定价。换句话说,他们倾向于将曾经的优秀投资(例如,一家表现强劲的公司)视为优秀投资,而对其定价不够关注,尽管定价(无论价格高低)才是最重要的。* h$ n$ H5 Y0 u
6 {/ G9 @5 R$ u, e* j7 K达利欧表示,这种行为为潜在的市场失误埋下了伏笔,尤其是在当前的经济环境下。) m' |' L) p$ u3 H9 @3 N9 Y
* }1 x s" ?3 j3 W# K3 b4 Q v此时,几乎每个人都希望通过购买他们认为会上涨的资产(而不是押注它们下跌)来赚钱,而且他们经常使用杠杆。”2 ~, s8 G! n% D" O* g
, i# e$ b/ {2 F4 G- [- a达利欧的模因交易建议是在他最近对美国经济发出的可怕警告之后提出的。本月早些时候,达利欧争论在接受PBS采访时表示,ZF需要将预算赤字占GDP的比例从7%降低到3%。
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/ N3 b- M& {6 ^1 i; A1 g1 R8 T* `“必须通过三件事来实现,而且必须分散在这三件事上,因为任何一件事都会带来太大的痛苦。这三件事是税收、削减开支和利率。”1 y I0 M/ k4 ^, l! }
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尽管国会和总统在此过程中并不直接处理其中的三分之一,但目前一万亿美元——我们赤字的一半——是利息支付,而且我们不仅有一万亿美元的利息支付,明年,我们还有九万亿美元的债务到期,必须展期或出售……& ]. y( t- s- S- @) o3 y( y/ \
1 m: t8 R" C4 y: V* V" f所以这就是我所谓的“3%”方案,分为三个部分,与1991-1998年非常相似。当时,预算赤字通过分摊的方式削减了GDP的5%。所以,这三件事是我们需要做的。
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