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Tom Lee 旗下看空分析师：上半年或出现风险清算事件导致波动加剧
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比推消息，Fundstrat 数字资产策略主管 Sean Farrell 在接受采访时表示，比特币长期仍预定达到 100 万美元，优质加密资产有强劲的结构性顺风。而 2026 年将是交易者市场，上半年可能出现风险清算事件（risk clearing event），导致波动加剧，对应比特币可能回落至 6 万美元（深度价值区，双手买入机会）。下半年流动性改善、政策刺激和 AI 驱动增长将带来绝佳机会。
对于以太坊，Sean Farrell 认为 ETH 被传统资产管理者视为小盘科技股。受益于真实世界资产（RWA）代币化叙事（Q3 2025 同比增长 145%，带来更高品质资产进入 DeFi，提升价值捕获）。因此其年底目标价约 4500 美元。
对于 SOL，Sean Farrell 认为其将与 ETH 竞争 RWA 份额，但缺乏传统资产管理者支持。其优势是高吞吐量、升级（如 Alpenglow、Firedancer）、潜在通胀降低。价格预期：Q1/Q2 回落至 50-75 美元，随后反弹至 220-260 美元。
而山寨币在风险清算后，将是绝佳鸡尾酒；ETH 跑赢 BTC 后，具有可靠代币经济学和扎实牵引力的山寨币将大幅表现，特别是 RWA 相关。
Tom Lee 接受采访时表示比特币或将在 2026 年 1 月底前创历史新高，而旗下 Fundstrat 分析师 Sean Farrell 在 20 日的报告中表示2026 年上半年比特币或跌至 6 万至 6.5 万美元，以太坊跌至 1800 至 2000 美元。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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