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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 + ^# f9 J2 M& X' _0 `3 u/ L
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其实原文标题不是这样的- @9 K' `* F3 B, A2 J/ c* p
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...! u: [" j1 W; u# U
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
9 I, A- B& j- V" O* l, y* v! K6 W& J. x) Y! o4 m/ \
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
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, g5 R0 c D9 p+ b「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 ) I, k5 p: h& q% C* a/ V
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」$ @+ O& ?, ?8 x0 c
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
! R$ X5 V$ a9 E( B1 s因此铜板较容易出现正面。2 y" q, O9 T: R- f8 @8 ^/ k
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ) U3 N. a! S2 r; m/ l, g6 K
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
1 B+ U9 d4 Q! g, E+ `" B心想赢定了。6 c( j$ Z8 h! H% Y
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，
/ f8 [1 M3 E* `3 {1 f9 D赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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F9 G- h t: M, M$ w赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，; ^, L1 M* H$ n e
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。$ |4 S6 L5 u& I b
7 P( `& K$ F5 L# J赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?- |. { I. J" e0 V- ?
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
3 o0 K: k5 r* c5 q) _7 p6 P& o* j! l「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
* B4 G( K* Y; |1 [「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」1 V- h, l6 r {" X3 L, O
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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2 \. O x! I, z) t 赌徒恍然大悟，
5 ]5 {2 h" k; z ?+ `0 `0 C原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，9 i9 x2 |9 R5 Z2 l
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
8 s6 G) G2 Q1 q4 U, D6 x「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」8 Q$ g" U. A. o' K9 g7 @. I
上帝说完便不见踪影。 # p! y0 ?2 c0 s1 |: A: }9 F4 J
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，+ q q5 w% Q0 ]; y: \$ I
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
) j& P9 @ U# N8 N% t6 z8 |. _: `1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，4 f2 r: ~& }: C" Y+ P$ K5 W
对赌徒十分有利。+ B' x( E" U! M: ]2 S/ z
; a+ g# q' N7 m+ x但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，" {% D; I, _* j8 Z# i, ^
在还没掷到1000次之前，
$ Y3 l' G: [. S5 Y' r5 B. B仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
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' C% I: l3 g# \% k( ` 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。* }. D- K1 h& S5 t6 C* N
& L& H$ b5 f/ a; L, _* N 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。, R' m: f+ t8 A% i* ? @/ P
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，) f# ]3 r& ~8 Q/ G' n8 \
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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