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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 + P1 \. Q' Y. F
; Z5 n# u5 O4 L5 u其实原文标题不是这样的4 {1 ~- F. e D5 ^- k
: s1 y- F9 T O4 z% s5 u; j" U这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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9 [, x6 A4 K0 | U' ^- J
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
- h6 M/ o% W) |4 P7 J: }9 Z他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
Q9 m& t: k9 B7 [- e: q3 d6 L; v+ u; v$ _1 s2 q2 r
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。+ K9 y0 m0 q; C3 ]0 M- _8 d% D0 P
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」1 Z6 Z L$ P9 j# l, J$ t7 R( M' b2 _
3 {; N* i5 j0 V& R
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
6 k3 s: b8 ^: c+ ~「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
9 V; L- u' y/ x) H4 U; n8 R
9 s5 B# |! ?$ z# { X" M$ \" C* I 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。+ i; z' t4 E) H4 N
6 Z$ ?. q& G7 W5 i% e* F+ h接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
, T! Q7 i3 L1 H因此铜板较容易出现正面。
+ ]; c u' {2 c8 \3 e& {; ?2 Z长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
* I+ }3 z( Y$ G$ T: ^2 T+ l因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
6 y: ^; `( @2 _* S) U心想赢定了。
$ S q! ?) U& |. M 5 v' W8 i* \8 i+ C2 l0 x2 ]
没想到开始不到半刻钟，% q7 p( T# F& n, D6 c$ l6 F
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
( I# `' f8 N! F0 q1 @但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
$ `; f ]8 n1 E. X' H6 b' H! \- e ; I3 @- ~7 h% k& G# c6 M
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?7 X9 Q5 B* d( c
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
7 i2 U: i9 |3 T* S9 y: f
上帝回答道：# Y' ^4 W5 A: F
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」8 Q6 `8 h) U- Z G5 t9 w7 l$ [
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」 v' ^1 Y- I0 I$ t" Z
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
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赌徒恍然大悟，: b- ^7 d O2 @) b" K: x& r
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，5 n/ \; e) l6 h- X- o/ ^% Z0 c% [* w5 t- k
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
# j9 B! ]7 h I, x; Q. N「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」9 h. X% @+ ?$ H/ N" }- |
上帝说完便不见踪影。
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一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，0 P8 v4 f* s4 H h" a0 L6 g
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
8 {5 T7 I: ]. [& Y7 C" c! |( y4 t; \1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，0 o4 m5 Y- K! |9 H
对赌徒十分有利。/ ~5 m" Q" o, [) `8 w, E& j# q
$ ]- w- c3 r1 x$ }5 Q但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
4 p+ y/ E: x2 }8 E在还没掷到1000次之前，8 r# z; _1 [# A% C h
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。& m" k1 V c5 I- s; `6 A$ q
6 q3 F- O" r6 z
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
7 ^4 N3 _* h, M
$ S2 g4 p$ h4 }8 g2 k+ z/ I 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
& [9 C- C+ }% h
( G' |' Y- T2 g8 ]# T 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
; z; n' V7 H+ ~$ M5 u- n- M8 F( v2 v4 Z6 }
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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