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浅谈国内欧赔研究的四大误区 转
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做赔率分析的高手我想大家都是基于博彩的一个最基本真理：欧赔无概率，比赛无偶然。赛果在事先是已经被明确分析出来的，或者有些实在不好开的比赛可以通过协议球来帮助庄家开盘。但是博彩公司每一个真实意图必须通过盘赔来表现。研究欧赔是博大精深的，需要的智慧和工作量非常大，但我发现目前国内整体水平偏低，论坛上的各种**贴充斥。
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笔者总结国内目前大体上的各种低级的欧赔误区，谨谈谈自己的看法，希望有以下误区的朋友及时反省，迷途知返。, x1 I3 J: }6 `1 D( ?" l0 Z `
欧赔四大必死误区之一：博彩公司纵向对比，幻想寻找“开得准”的公司。这是痴人说梦，自寻死路。/ \) A+ M5 _- P- p( U! r3 @
欧赔四大必死误区之二：研究各种赔率体系，返还率体系，妄谈其中规律，这是哗众取宠，饮鸠止渴。
* M3 _# e# _" ^* F" R' F欧赔四大必死误区之三：不懂球队（联赛）基本面，不懂受注基本面，这是盲人摸象，十赌九输。0 }2 O( p, e( e0 m; J# B3 m
欧赔四大必死误区之四： 研究各种欧亚换算、凯利指数、交易量、投注量。这是滑天下之稽，沦为庄家的笑柄。
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具体的有时间我会写一点自己的分析和心得。
9 [0 w7 y. G& M) s' L( V) k如果可以避免以上误区，再开发一定程度自己的赔感，相信一轮联赛标赔单选10中7以上不再是天方夜谭。9 b/ ]6 P5 P/ L8 {! W
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[b]再谈国人欧赔研究的一点重要误区[/b]% e5 h0 ?$ w1 H! h+ }( E l' m; E
; M# e& S3 \5 q' ]天朝人看盘赔，自以为是，误区连连。最常见的笑话之一就是：这个盘口（赔率）已经告诉我们主队不败的格局了。7 }# T" N4 a5 L$ Q6 c3 h
; e2 L. [, |: y. @. G. L( m- u浅析其要害：博彩公司开盘会“告诉”你什么格局吗？不得不说，天朝人的傲慢滑天下之大稽。8 t' o' Z7 B- y4 n! e8 r, ]
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一种赔率组合，庄家最希望达到的效果就是门外汉一看就会大胆的去热门方向。笔者仅举例今年上半年印象最深的一场比赛：拜仁慕尼黑2：3国际米兰。威廉希尔初赔 1.95/3.50/3.80.本人没有什么纵向比较博彩公司赔率数据的恶习，仅威廉初赔即可分析。很多人看到这个赔率组合就认为主不败，想想看是啊，这么低的胜赔，平赔顶高，以国米的人气搭配这样的负赔，似乎直观的就是主不败格局。$ }& d( s- ?/ n$ e
; S; u+ V1 m) h5 P; `' t笔者当时的分析如下：去年的亚军拜仁的欧战对去年冠军国际米兰绝对不具备2.00以下盘口能力，1.95迎合拜仁形势上的优势，明显营造主胜大热之势，一秒钟断定主不胜。平赔开3.50，高开一区间并置顶，显然威廉希尔并不担心多数闲家认为的打平即可出线的压力，这里的高平赔起到的三个作用：1、阻击国米客胜的信心；2、故意制造高水阻平引诱那些对主胜不放心的闲家；3、其最隐蔽的作用在于掩护负赔的低开。所以当时笔者直观上断定客队必胜。 |
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[align=left][font=Simsun]路 过 看 看~~~~~~~~~~~~~~[/font][/align] |
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独立的研究，都是不靠谱的，亚盘、欧赔都要结合来看！ |
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独立的研究，都是不靠谱的，亚盘、欧赔都要结合来看！ |
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独立的研究，都是不靠谱的，亚盘、欧赔都要结合来看！ |
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