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浅谈国内欧赔研究的四大误区 转
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做赔率分析的高手我想大家都是基于博彩的一个最基本真理：欧赔无概率，比赛无偶然。赛果在事先是已经被明确分析出来的，或者有些实在不好开的比赛可以通过协议球来帮助庄家开盘。但是博彩公司每一个真实意图必须通过盘赔来表现。研究欧赔是博大精深的，需要的智慧和工作量非常大，但我发现目前国内整体水平偏低，论坛上的各种**贴充斥。! U$ d: n. ~; b4 d# S3 k& u! G6 |
% ?0 U# g7 |9 {笔者总结国内目前大体上的各种低级的欧赔误区，谨谈谈自己的看法，希望有以下误区的朋友及时反省，迷途知返。
& z5 t4 j7 t! P% K. Y8 F( m7 k欧赔四大必死误区之一：博彩公司纵向对比，幻想寻找“开得准”的公司。这是痴人说梦，自寻死路。4 g) N9 C$ r1 O# m! @) h
欧赔四大必死误区之二：研究各种赔率体系，返还率体系，妄谈其中规律，这是哗众取宠，饮鸠止渴。+ I4 L3 l/ } c6 e1 Y a
欧赔四大必死误区之三：不懂球队（联赛）基本面，不懂受注基本面，这是盲人摸象，十赌九输。
( O0 s( q' |" [3 S欧赔四大必死误区之四： 研究各种欧亚换算、凯利指数、交易量、投注量。这是滑天下之稽，沦为庄家的笑柄。" d7 p {6 j3 H8 F
3 z6 k; N0 F: a7 ~, J% B具体的有时间我会写一点自己的分析和心得。
V$ s, ~% Z; M' G如果可以避免以上误区，再开发一定程度自己的赔感，相信一轮联赛标赔单选10中7以上不再是天方夜谭。
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[b]再谈国人欧赔研究的一点重要误区[/b]
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9 a. {: |" f {2 y3 {天朝人看盘赔，自以为是，误区连连。最常见的笑话之一就是：这个盘口（赔率）已经告诉我们主队不败的格局了。7 p; E4 z/ K F6 |6 O: j6 o
; Z1 r2 r8 a# Q5 p+ N: {6 J% v: y
浅析其要害：博彩公司开盘会“告诉”你什么格局吗？不得不说，天朝人的傲慢滑天下之大稽。
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# G$ p" C9 W& N; m$ W# U一种赔率组合，庄家最希望达到的效果就是门外汉一看就会大胆的去热门方向。笔者仅举例今年上半年印象最深的一场比赛：拜仁慕尼黑2：3国际米兰。威廉希尔初赔 1.95/3.50/3.80.本人没有什么纵向比较博彩公司赔率数据的恶习，仅威廉初赔即可分析。很多人看到这个赔率组合就认为主不败，想想看是啊，这么低的胜赔，平赔顶高，以国米的人气搭配这样的负赔，似乎直观的就是主不败格局。0 e- X3 Y& F& q# i
2 {& |5 `: p1 ] X( E- x+ }笔者当时的分析如下：去年的亚军拜仁的欧战对去年冠军国际米兰绝对不具备2.00以下盘口能力，1.95迎合拜仁形势上的优势，明显营造主胜大热之势，一秒钟断定主不胜。平赔开3.50，高开一区间并置顶，显然威廉希尔并不担心多数闲家认为的打平即可出线的压力，这里的高平赔起到的三个作用：1、阻击国米客胜的信心；2、故意制造高水阻平引诱那些对主胜不放心的闲家；3、其最隐蔽的作用在于掩护负赔的低开。所以当时笔者直观上断定客队必胜。 |
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[align=left][font=Simsun]路 过 看 看~~~~~~~~~~~~~~[/font][/align] |
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独立的研究，都是不靠谱的，亚盘、欧赔都要结合来看！ |
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独立的研究，都是不靠谱的，亚盘、欧赔都要结合来看！ |
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独立的研究，都是不靠谱的，亚盘、欧赔都要结合来看！ |
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