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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
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4 s: c. ^! F7 T! g1 N其实原文标题不是这样的- m% E1 r% y& K% d& z- K
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!* M5 n# X2 ^& x. ^1 p: F! M }
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...# H( s) N4 U5 {" o& t4 a- u Y
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。 z6 m) {6 Y! C. K% k
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「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
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$ d5 H0 Z7 E/ F# f9 l「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
# a/ I# F# O5 l/ x, p5 ~「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」+ F8 ~- C- _/ i' K7 s( ?, g* N
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。5 C. b) p4 ]2 v0 E/ u- D
! O" F& ^9 T r: j9 H接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
! u: K0 w, [8 R! o x因此铜板较容易出现正面。
+ v& m) p/ ?1 a, m# \长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 : h* k( H# b8 G! D, `1 l$ g6 X; ]
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。0 g7 n9 v! F* d7 _( n# Z( L7 N
心想赢定了。' w% }! J; \8 w0 v! A+ P
A5 T2 f, v. h, U0 V8 p5 k没想到开始不到半刻钟，( }4 m4 A& J# L9 A; z
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，2 {. c5 I& @# K% U9 \! n; i
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。! s. c6 v5 W* D
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赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败? u5 \7 x+ P! J# D3 \6 X% [
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
; Q# S9 {+ I6 W% [「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
# j x* j/ r7 [6 A「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
6 Y" f% H& O0 A$ ?3 s. V「而不是先发生在我身上。」: l8 t: N6 g3 U9 l& L) w9 e2 V
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赌徒恍然大悟，) d2 W* F% e" l* G' O# w- q
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，* d& j' E. \- q/ k4 M: n8 O" j
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！% D0 U5 Z2 g6 x
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」2 |/ i) p; ^1 q7 R
上帝说完便不见踪影。 ( F/ Q+ q& K7 e4 _" { f; ~ I6 S
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
' K L3 K* E- t; j: o X f9 i若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，, N2 A# z: H4 p' r
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，7 ?, r" H" O" L
对赌徒十分有利。
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但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，$ S) S4 L: ^3 N6 f4 y& S! ?- c0 t: y
在还没掷到1000次之前，
5 M' Q) T& E$ w/ y仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。& K* o+ c% f; v/ K9 Q+ x6 x
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赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。9 k& c7 J& `+ N+ o. O! {7 O
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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5 c1 d$ {! R- Z 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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