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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

+ X- Z: Q% e* N: A
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類& ?- ^  A8 O5 P$ C# P
10A23456789' l( l( I. {+ [( [( L% _+ G. M8 [, B
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1591 ~9 K6 m7 P, ]' f: B3 B2 b
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
+ J& b& w( g7 d& s* s-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.1335 y, r  U) f8 |* f  r4 t
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120# F) f+ x0 I0 o3 u2 x' V7 |
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
2 x. X" w  w- v8 H$ I& G1 m-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096; A9 H/ s+ x' ]
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.0852 q/ _* ~  c! C9 K) [$ g& t+ |& |, m
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
% B5 @( R) d/ p3 u8 I3 H0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
: t) c8 w& P! Z8 ]. Y1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
& x% b. |- _6 ]% h: p. L2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
% Y. i8 J  v9 |$ X( T+ O3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036$ q9 K  F4 X3 Y3 ^
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
  F+ J1 w- z5 Z% a5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020* U/ X4 R: G) M# q
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
" o$ a1 ?( D8 `" n$ l( Y7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007; Z4 l! G. B# y# _% {
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001* r/ L+ G; w, w2 Y3 E
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996* D  Y+ j; l& P: [( |  Z+ Q& e$ z& }
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
( k/ f6 X' U$ K+ ?5 Z11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
+ q, x/ L7 A2 T: ?* A12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.9857 _* T8 Y- ]) i) |4 [( t" z; \8 F
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982- ^* \6 w; f  V; q8 ]
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
% Y, R' |8 R. `! v9 A15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979' Q4 n0 h; P. p' r0 o
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979' D& m- T* y' z/ K- a6 r2 n
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979* K# @5 u' P9 u+ F* S! d
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979' t  _) i2 V: Q
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
* c, z# w' q$ U+ ]( B* W- \20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.9837 U' N9 k0 E5 ~+ x
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986/ G2 v/ v5 B* t' M
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
9 t/ D- Z! m! v( w23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
% N: Z2 m) J3 J0 m5 y24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997& `* J' u8 @3 L1 j4 W1 b
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
9 J4 h" S- n* K. w( [: `

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。

! T: f( Z% |5 V
表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
( M) U4 `- K* V( W/ e10A23456789/ A& v" W4 K- g
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
& O+ E8 `& T6 ~8 b( z- D-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082# k, [3 R# v& ~! i/ E
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0692 V. k. z% n. @. |
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
5 E( {. [. U" I' D-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044
2 ~+ `+ t) [: m-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032- p& T; y  j5 y- g9 ^. U6 ]
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
* r6 U! F! R" u- W-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010; ?, G$ H! P! r$ G
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000
7 v- l' r& T! L* i+ C& V1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010  U" Q& l0 F* }: ~2 A* B  Q/ q7 O
2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019% h- P0 }0 M" `& z  z+ [+ j
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
, L8 z6 M9 k, Q, b5 D3 K$ }4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036% H: b" x# v8 S6 w$ u& N# p
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
6 {; |+ R9 M) O5 ?; c3 m# L; `6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
5 W& \( Q% M* B; j3 F4 }7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
0 `$ K. Y8 o9 {) T! _& ^" q8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063, R& b5 {' ^* [* t9 ~3 X6 [
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
' W: b+ b# B5 c6 F1 g$ z: \10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
9 q. n: d2 e7 e# ?, A2 R11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076* @! _" s, b& W4 U  r
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079$ f; P7 q  y$ p/ M
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.0825 s& B; H3 {8 x& [' |" J
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084; [- Y7 j0 T6 Q+ `4 w/ m7 a
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085- d. g  c- s1 P; `
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
$ u$ e4 I1 l# ]% L4 M8 x5 ~9 _17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
3 W, t" C' \( x0 v9 T& G18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085% _9 K4 J7 S" t  j
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
/ j$ A1 P) x0 q& X6 t5 n* J2 X20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
" D5 N1 ~% L" ]5 [$ D6 M( [21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078; b; E, h, @" b7 A5 D) Q
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
# |" t; K9 `' ?: B8 N% A23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.0713 }' S8 n% b" A+ }- R' z" f
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
- @( Y( T) _$ m# _25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.0627 y7 T' @9 m; S3 `8 s

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

, }& G$ B# Z' m$ Q7 J9 q5 ?
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
: E7 w  d: M7 R/ D# i+ Y1 T10A23456789
" W# d, u9 L, b  W+ l" J-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122
7 U- q, @# z% X3 F* Q+ k! ]-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137# y% `: {& B* ?5 J' F$ F) J
-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152: T( V  o5 L& F4 @1 n5 R
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166% M; q* X' q- a3 }/ i2 F8 F
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
; w" [5 c  g$ r6 b7 u5 l-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193, O6 |" E; N  Y, m. S9 R8 P2 Q
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
6 V6 U: i6 Y! M6 C-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
1 F# f+ [& i2 M  W* P; V0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
4 D( U, m" g6 C3 @- I) V# M5 s1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239# v( {. u9 j9 N, [$ Q1 I
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
7 X3 C" x7 {8 G( h3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
& |( G8 W7 _! Z  }7 \; T0 c/ x4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.2661 A$ t& K0 ?! ]& l3 I
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274" e. n5 ?& g' q% T2 o
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281
% @; }+ E4 f  f# u( ]& O7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287. ~+ B7 `) I+ s0 k
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
2 t5 o/ |$ ^& d/ b8 Y9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
2 C( G+ K' D" m5 q9 }10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
( _/ S7 T" Y# a' F11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306! b/ S4 k1 i7 R
12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308$ \* O8 m( Q3 B3 U( ?( E* z
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.3108 @- a9 ]) h$ D( o, Y
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
# [4 x; s4 ]" p. c5 k) D15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
' G/ p% j" k% w  l  T* D! q16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
6 G$ L6 S# l& ~' z& _( h0 x17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310
; N( ?. E5 A- q4 ^& F/ |5 m18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
6 ^5 B5 V9 U' m7 W2 F19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
4 x5 D4 ]: V3 _! N/ q1 ^20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
9 x4 @( z  k/ K8 [; Z" n  o21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
( B1 h0 I. Y( F; N5 i2 g9 ?; q! y22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.2921 ?' I& F5 L& H; A. [. U( h, I; y
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286% A7 C. t( @& C5 B* M% B. @
24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
, }! R4 ]0 ?5 z' C5 z* z0 Z, `25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
& n4 Q- |* ?5 \  v

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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