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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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1#

第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

- j0 H8 F7 w' u" ^
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
- P1 Y' y, g6 ^0 k7 B4 E10A23456789; z9 K# l2 \6 R% c
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159! a5 ]3 m" T: j5 c
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146! P  t6 r0 @% T. n/ W$ b& R
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133! t, J- Z( |' a; Z
-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.1201 G# d  p5 K3 N8 O; G5 |! v: g& S
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1081 T! z1 D8 W. j. J" b/ E& A/ m' y
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
+ H& _1 O8 I. X- B9 y$ I4 Y-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
+ J2 V% [+ B4 T! G, b-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074  a& ]2 l( `$ d% {% {0 N2 R
0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
( P+ q& P# p' b5 w1 X& S; @  W5 |1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
6 Q5 w2 W' u; h6 A) a* F- ?2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.0455 y& p4 s- @) z; k( t) Q: b2 L
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
0 s7 {; p+ |1 h5 y4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028! z; p4 d, t9 E0 w" S3 ~
5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.0208 B; A& @  ~- G
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.0132 q0 K# x8 {! T, [, g  D
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007- i" o+ y5 B& f
8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001: d2 J- S* b  _' s: q5 R) R
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.9964 x3 A5 ?1 Y1 L3 ?4 A5 a: ?
10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992
8 ?/ ?7 z) \6 Q; t' e0 I5 O11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988
. J( X" l) W" V) e: g12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985; G& e! ~7 @  x+ _
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982' U  V" H2 q2 K3 n
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980: X, N3 j, R0 n* u( ?& x0 b$ D/ C
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
0 g2 r3 O9 s% ]. S8 K& R( a) X16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
+ e( p; ^: m  m, }2 y17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979
. p7 {1 E$ F6 N, j& a) x18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979! n; D. g9 J/ M" j6 B) B  G
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
' y2 r, G3 \6 j8 V& A% }) [9 a20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
. d8 P" {8 q: J; n6 c4 C21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9860 s4 t, ?# ]3 w. O; X6 ^3 O
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989
5 C6 i' p& Z" Y- B23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
$ E- M5 H3 |& P: S5 P2 j2 Z24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.9977 J( d$ k% A* E6 f  Y
25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
" k# P" o) A+ D  D: P/ q- C

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


* F; k6 j. v# l* S表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
2 {, D& \5 z9 w- {10A23456789* e1 H/ M3 b& M7 N6 g
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095
  [7 O4 F7 o. H-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.0826 Q' X9 S' f; o1 a5 I* ]7 d7 R
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
3 w+ u% E3 M6 @% Q  N, ]8 \* D5 F-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056  z  O7 D3 o4 e4 S: ?
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044, H  F! W) X" t7 J+ U. @6 m
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
8 N& l( y; M1 U7 W- b4 L-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
8 N  |- F- ]9 H8 j# e1 O-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.0109 ^: ~/ S& r8 B
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000# \6 R+ Y" J7 B6 D9 z* Y, L
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
- q; r2 \/ W( s2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019/ _6 @* W; K0 J6 c" A) j
3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
3 L# u" f) G: n+ l% `% {0 f4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036* p# x% P, |) ~. h8 I
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
* @6 t/ t( V9 A  n" F# ^& f1 K6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
* d. W: \7 `- a4 Q, Y7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.0579 o  z- m7 g0 t. ?
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063
" \) X; B- V( k) V3 f. u% M( k9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
# H0 }: o% r: Q- [4 c* y0 Q10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
: G$ ]$ N# q: \1 K/ h7 l11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076& e& A# _( e; k, e  f! a4 j
12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
. }- `5 n: U; e  d) |  Z, V13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
7 J: U- j) {; v  G8 V/ D8 R14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
* r2 R- Q) A( ?+ y$ T7 l" [3 q15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085# z: Y8 g# v/ A( u$ O& N, U
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.0851 _& p' a4 ^  O/ a- ~
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.0858 u5 H" n2 m6 \6 I3 u
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085  E, F4 ^( B+ T
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.0833 e1 O: C5 v; ^9 n' v2 }, ~) n
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
1 @3 {. W: |# ?! E0 ~21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078
- O, S* A: N" v9 b" w" d; o; t22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075
% N) u2 w  m- g$ q/ d! Z  U23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
) C: Y$ m( |; q7 R# f6 @% g; x24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
# D, T. b5 X; r; N! K2 N; j( S1 [25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
$ r/ m: f; }+ t) E; F

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

9 H4 P* {( T6 O0 `$ c
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
% O* k9 n. u6 m- P8 D0 ]' |10A23456789& F% `, }8 j4 h; j0 i
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.1224 ~' T3 F. v$ c5 w% ]' u! f3 e% \
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
2 t  f7 n4 n. Z& k0 R+ a  p-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.1526 s/ H. R* r+ ?4 ], x' b
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166; W, R& m; I1 |/ q! ], G
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
" T4 a& U2 u) X( Z: \( G-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.1937 O( F/ d* H+ I4 ^$ u3 r6 T: g  @
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205
2 {' p7 z3 ]1 _8 t8 _9 a8 g-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
' Z  ?+ }5 i# ?/ ~0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
4 A% u) F$ c9 k5 e# B$ T& O- |1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239- U+ R% L( k. C8 Q1 Y# r
2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
; W( p) S. g7 m  C) `3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
( A9 D2 i1 S2 R2 v1 ?. ^& H8 R) j4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266# I2 p9 V9 h& ^3 f1 W9 c
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.2740 Q9 X2 v3 x) T7 t4 N3 s4 |
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.2812 n/ w6 u, r: ?" f% \* C3 ?
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.2872 h0 ~6 V. e- R6 `! `, Y% c
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
1 \- w6 E" {/ U* e2 n9 z! @9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
% e! o# J- T# j. X0 B2 C; K$ L10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
8 V2 e( k2 P: Q: i0 Q( c8 m11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
" s8 k3 Q: R1 L' d! }. s9 k12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.3086 d- {0 V; k; _7 j
13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310
, Q( {3 Q2 q& T7 x2 V14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
0 w6 }; F+ H3 I% L: a' r15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
. o+ ~+ b. ?7 t2 A) @* D7 ^3 O& I16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311, L" n3 n* J% T$ y. j- [: R4 w4 J# I
17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310+ s) ^! e3 u4 e$ ?8 w. `2 L6 B
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
) l. }6 t9 q( D: v* ^$ Q19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
$ y2 C4 I) [+ k# t20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301- x$ h" D# ?8 p* P
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
; W. F9 o2 T, ?& s) g- z& a/ j6 `* O22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
# w2 j4 P, P; T9 E' w+ r; F23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
7 v  ?) M& }8 a* X* B24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
  y7 o+ u" b4 f1 t25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
2 f# G& r* x7 k: `! E$ m

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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