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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘. X. }" T: P% Z
" z i" `$ v# E ?/ k6 } 平手中水,主队有利
7 ?, q& R6 r$ V, O9 |5 C 在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。4 n+ C" }3 ]3 f" C- l& _! z' d7 Z- J$ I
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
( f% w3 \$ k9 M: y% k 英超主队
3 i0 E. w |2 _/ H, f2 } 胜:13场 48%" v6 |/ @+ T( d
平:5场 17%4 ]) t# Q- D( o r4 W H; U* S
负:9场 35%
1 J+ h. [" d/ u. l 通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
8 N1 E' M7 K4 H
3 M# O$ ]# i5 G2 j 一、初盘阶段9 g: C' J; L! r# Z Y- b: g* @
具体到水位如下:
- B; ^$ w t, n ]! g+ k 初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
4 T+ q8 K& e9 [, |% P& x 初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负% L" i+ ]# D$ [6 H
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负: G/ i- c& I( A
- |- q/ D; e# M4 q/ Q6 o
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
* b; B# _. e9 O5 e M# F/ k2 n 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。- z( r: J2 t3 x5 X! f4 e2 e9 ~9 L
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。& w; S0 o. P+ ^* Y# h
8 \+ n- z+ a. }* d5 V1 J5 T 二、临场阶段
" s1 E& b& i1 S# x* P : `5 O5 ?8 `+ u
具体到变盘和水位如下:0 L1 S" l( z" n4 E3 b
临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
8 }! Q+ A( I/ U7 k/ b* N 临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
+ m- H5 E: G8 T; i: q ) c6 i/ e2 ^3 F) { \; R3 E+ Q
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
! c! n [& M. s3 R$ X" E 临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
; O) O- ?. U6 m7 w4 |7 f/ q& d D ) U' u2 L. @% `
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
5 K! S$ _ ]. m3 X4 I: O9 @' v/ @ 初盘:0.82平手1.04/ X2 c1 B0 [- N# B4 b) }+ P
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
+ e0 `( M( u4 }! D6 y 9 O A6 }7 B% N) w: l
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
9 z, N% i [) \0 { 初盘:0.76平手1.10
/ ?, O u9 x- }4 ^3 A6 j( }! e 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
8 n2 i$ l; R; g) g1 C/ W; Q ' P1 l/ [! D2 B4 V# ?1 w9 e
朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
9 X W3 n) L" c- R* _" b/ @, Y9 m 初盘:0.82平手1.04
9 ]7 S, T( W' }6 L) a7 z8 ^% `5 e 终盘:0.88平手/半球0.989 }, n0 \0 T/ G3 A
1 x9 g w- z, M3 x4 O 伯恩利2-1西汉姆. r- V: I( ?8 w! F5 C
初盘:0.88平手0.98
/ T# C6 o# K Z1 t$ u# K+ F% u4 y) W 终盘:1.12平/半0.744 V. V1 K1 r p. P6 l
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
& u! j: b- z: i, }! o+ w3 r- y, a 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。8 m! E: ]1 F9 `1 R# y
提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。; C' y! R7 p! b. f! f& P$ E2 H5 h" w) r
: ]3 s; G l* A$ p# p 三、球队表现
F$ W! x% T4 f) F. ~# Y" U
' I0 ^, Y. {0 I2 @! U4 O* Q! v+ {4 E 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。1 w& o$ y7 ~4 v u4 T$ x3 K
3 k6 Q8 ^2 C! r 四、投注要点0 F5 O# A3 V, y
要点1:平手中水、主多不败9 Q, X) U, G/ T& n
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
# p6 S& q8 C1 e 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败, p, @8 F7 z: G
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
0 L. Z2 z# x# l ?) `$ C 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任5 G, t: C, P8 z
要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
! _9 Q$ v) Q( H# A3 V: v5 p$ e 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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