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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘' K/ `" y, \- ~
' P3 p. o9 F W6 ~$ n# J S
平手中水,主队有利3 t& w0 ]5 {6 x" {) j
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。 V5 v. O* k" R/ j7 ~. ?5 c( k* z& k
09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
' j: m x1 [/ c+ Z% ^ Y, y 英超主队
5 {2 G8 B* @; P 胜:13场 48%
, D. m: R- @3 _- u1 n3 ]& R! d3 R V 平:5场 17%
N* P2 g& B; }5 ] 负:9场 35%) i0 s+ R, p! Y' h
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
+ n7 |. w9 q, [ 8 a( C% g5 u) E1 Z1 L9 D/ B9 B
一、初盘阶段3 Y: n* a+ Y3 @0 B1 ]9 }
具体到水位如下:6 q# k0 l( ^6 u6 r x, v4 a5 n* v
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负2 z+ v) ^: s- w J) o* {
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
( {) V. G0 Q1 w/ Z i9 R! L 初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
1 |/ w. @0 x' G
5 D, ^1 D4 Z- ?3 K9 E 分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。: H0 V, m0 o$ ^) v" O3 z7 V" X' b) b
初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。, h9 E6 h/ x, Q4 V5 ]: G
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
. g u6 T& ~6 ]& g8 @; t | ; B% d5 b% b2 U7 C! b. u9 U: Z6 ]; n
二、临场阶段
9 s" V f7 Y$ O8 V/ P0 b
' f1 K5 X) ^3 ^4 j 具体到变盘和水位如下:
. S. e+ w& q7 E _ Y: g. P 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负1 B S2 \, o# m
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
) ?- }9 K& k2 _2 ~) k4 h3 @+ i
, X0 G$ h5 P& J7 J- j 临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。+ |6 t$ E9 n; y" {6 J+ d
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:5 h! V a" [1 O+ \5 S9 ^' |7 w; z+ N. j
5 P8 `8 |* ~) r% ~2 R7 h- f% C 朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿 G& m9 P' d( b4 s9 K7 R1 x
初盘:0.82平手1.045 d+ i! O( o$ H! N, @
终盘:1.01平手/半球0.857 ~ r1 y2 q9 h- E; _
8 [3 q# F l* B* i
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
" @0 C$ e' @% @: P0 L6 C. W; V5 {9 \ 初盘:0.76平手1.10
9 U& ?6 X5 K- j y; Q% [4 S4 h' g5 h 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91$ X4 O8 T% t! G7 c( Z
8 e2 `7 b( r% ]0 ^+ Q( {! `2 G 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
: u5 ~1 r! M5 j2 t2 [ x: M0 G 初盘:0.82平手1.04+ F2 M9 i( f. P1 d7 v1 I
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.989 v/ s% P* Z, n1 h
% x3 |( ^. E: y 伯恩利2-1西汉姆
% {( n9 C: E% N. @ 初盘:0.88平手0.98/ {4 h7 n# c# h* c: q: D7 Z
终盘:1.12平/半0.74
6 f+ B1 a! m5 G: W/ J 我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
- ]9 F, I2 f9 ^' } 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
1 h$ e2 |1 t) i, S' N8 }8 Z5 k 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
9 f+ F( @) T6 v7 \ 9 Y7 g" g5 m2 ], ]2 i8 g4 `+ Q" L
三、球队表现
! o4 ]$ s7 I% E* K! ]
2 S( B4 a) k2 U- S2 z9 @ 结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。: Z6 O4 L. E. m& Q6 h
/ g9 D/ y$ F( m% Z& w
四、投注要点
2 K! A! e }+ l/ Y' i 要点1:平手中水、主多不败3 }9 \+ p3 ?3 c y3 h
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
8 T; e4 E# B# B$ }3 y 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败' X* I0 z) L! u7 h3 v8 H) F
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大) a& q/ w$ i3 \ C
要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
' H Q( k" `& t, M- h0 O 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
z, B' d" Q* K- Z1 W 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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