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[lastpost] => 2771221 比特币ETF引发稀缺性炒作，重现黄金在上世纪70年代的上涨（转） 1759578446 人生如赌
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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: `1 j* M) ~+ y" s) R8 G 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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) ?3 o* J! r0 e 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。6 t) I" e+ \+ N) G" Z9 e8 U6 W! {/ q
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, }* J/ b4 M6 `* x+ U2 R 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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. l/ `8 `6 D' \- N2 f& x/ [- x' s 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。; p: n% ]) J7 L7 r/ M2 q
/ J0 {; z% U- J8 ~ 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，3 Y9 A$ s X* Z
1 [. J7 U* a" r% I& Y3 h价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间9 R. L$ W4 C9 ^! M+ L
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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; i* {( F0 `' j9 W6 [4 f. R 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。3 E, c& Y4 ^* u! k; w3 e: v) p1 L
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“$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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2 r* F" f( x9 }6 L积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。” c" q E5 o4 U5 A, A
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。) \4 w. A. m4 K
9 U/ u, o+ S6 D) K. F9 O 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。" J. X9 Z# Z3 K( t* n
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势- J! }; l/ A3 [5 Y2 f t: D
4 K. H( C1 S- O- d( Q' m/ b' w 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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4 i' ^' I: E. `; e' T市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”6 m8 L. ?% |; ]6 d# E5 [$ U
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