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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。9 ]1 {: @# {9 w; e/ j# o/ j% p
. V$ | l! ~( H1 d3 m2 [& R 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。9 S8 B$ | Z# _: h/ c
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比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续3 q( x1 r8 N S B% Q1 g; E
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Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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9 k& c, {, \1 |, p 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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( o! G& u1 ^8 e0 {; M( O& j: D+ q 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。/ \/ j' M( r5 m6 R3 r
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针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。& ^7 X; m. ^: O" u$ ~5 ~
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，$ _3 E+ P4 X. [5 y+ x$ I
$ T/ n- E& f- F价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。) Q1 G# k6 K! @+ S
/ J: C6 j, p+ g. G7 ]2 ? “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间/ U9 m3 l8 |0 i3 Q
: f, a, u6 j2 F& C框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”. \$ @/ A! Z0 |4 ]7 z: h
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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8 [- `7 ?/ b& ~6 A" s6 D “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”7 W1 m2 L4 L0 i5 a, D
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$ [. b g1 b$ y9 W 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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8 ]: b* E6 a* {* ]; X 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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4 V" g1 O. h D+ B/ ] 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势8 [$ g# z2 ]3 S; Z7 T$ _* t y
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。1 f8 F P8 E4 E# i& b
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。% g, s. a0 k5 o, e8 ]# I1 R
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2 p% k/ n+ Y( a- M% A 该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”( k& `# V B% A& {- m; i. w: W5 i
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