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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。' M5 ^1 _) n% @7 ^$ O- T, M
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4 s" C: d# ]( [% N5 K$ t 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续( P: i! ?, w* M! F, X G
3 i- v2 u/ ? f+ Q0 V Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。
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尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。6 T* b$ M/ _0 h- b$ X- V" r' ~
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* x' @% V2 S7 E 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。" W9 x9 M1 U4 z
, |; }* y+ G: J: u 知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，# s# D, h2 N/ V5 \( y4 Y
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。; |. C# ~2 m: e# W) `7 l) p( p
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间7 J5 T3 S: G) m8 B3 N
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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. K& Y! M1 ~" _9 ~ 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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% l& C. G' m) X& y f5 {. `- I “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在/ O. S" V; m, I. i* h
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早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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& b+ K, w" @. ]3 R- B7 b 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。8 T a6 H. ]7 b ~* D( y5 o
3 s4 G3 ~1 [4 ?7 q& a/ [8 m 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势( s& d+ y. F0 s6 }# s: N
) t; G5 f e& i' D. W 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。+ L; c, v+ h# \9 K5 I, F
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监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，
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_# L: ~+ B |6 z8 S4 I, ^市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”( T8 q: r* f8 P/ V' ~
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