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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 ' \9 A+ ]* G* Z' Q

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) O" P; `8 F% Y/ F8 ?只跟踪一个联赛
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! ]8 b, W+ M9 T9 f+ `全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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7 T3 E0 R9 J$ B9 U2 y- d" v三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，8 M' i% y# x! @6 z: u
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。8 C, i: Z) @6 N6 q3 l8 N2 n. R
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）" g8 s. t) J8 Q( ]; ?
7 R; ]4 `# x; F2 N! B; ^/ ]
然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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7 k, K& l; \! C2 S7 H! e- [# Q4 N就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱: K+ c7 q: D: f2 I

+ R# Z0 h8 \1 w; n3 r- i当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目( y7 y5 V) M4 ?

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) L5 V8 X2 H9 s亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，9 c- s4 a5 p/ n  O* _* \" p4 L0 {2 T/ t9 o

; ]6 G- |  y& |而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，, E2 H9 M# }, P' K/ A+ n- P
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。( d' I5 _+ S: k: Z9 A# O+ V
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0 `; d/ E& m  |6 J" C" o3 z4 V理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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2 k6 k$ q2 J1 x/ k% ~" j8 b! p) ^排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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7 s) N+ |; K7 V! R9 b% W/ X8 H) v在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
7 A. }6 S  [$ A" H& w9 c1 P7 W. Y, b3 _( ?7 t& S- r
几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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9 \  C: {& M/ N8 P, F: |3 P8 o  w! \) O' }) g/ _
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，/ G6 K4 M2 ^/ c) T, {
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就是回避了大的亏损，9 }1 c! F$ J5 R6 S' o: @, @& Z
7 `9 v5 c* d+ t& ?" ?
大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，' W1 d  U/ ?4 L0 A
; `: K5 `! i4 E3 E8 w
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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