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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛
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" i' w' }5 Z  r全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，! s* s4 G+ p7 b7 U  c

7 c& m) c6 T% P! w& Z7 _1 U偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。9 F" b0 _6 A% ^1 Z, W* Z2 K. E

5 _6 u; B# r- E* q4 z4 L& q方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱4 a6 T0 F4 \1 j0 z$ [! g8 ~

" h+ ?3 v) G3 m4 s" h% \当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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7 I: N6 n. F( @  ^* f4 g但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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* h) `- g- Z7 ?7 Q5 c( Q$ g6 f理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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0 {: d$ w  F! g4 p* d. T' i1 U4 S排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，; U/ z, b* Y, B* |

  ^9 r2 z- Z( ]& t9 j, s* n. a但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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" F4 V0 u0 O' r- P$ R. u. Y: {这比买国债存银行合算。1 s9 e- f& L4 Q* ^# ?& Z

9 ~4 D( b6 O, d5 S' A9 j, @, L在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，: _* x! U) x/ I7 A/ {
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。& r3 Y+ H1 @: G( j+ C

2 ]0 ?9 |  d2 {; N放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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" ^1 a0 N  i6 t* n. {大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，) m0 H2 y: T* P* Z* x2 z& m+ }
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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