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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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+ X4 Y, L& G6 k0 j3 i3 U8 t% u只跟踪一个联赛
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! n4 E# \1 |8 `, [! Q8 \全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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6 I+ `/ z, s) S4 k# o三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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2 o% y% Q, k, N# u5 U/ S; B偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。4 ]2 d& `1 e  u" _" }8 p% [
5 y1 v" p- Z3 }2 H9 j. r5 p
方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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* U: |+ Z1 X. n# E然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，1 p) `* s& g' B$ ~+ p% v

2 \) h( @$ e# W+ i% M就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱% C8 T5 G3 w8 m2 a1 N: h

9 E& r( }, W, G/ z: X当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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8 m' \8 a. |; m8 C- ]) y8 Q亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，6 f* U+ d% d5 U; {4 X6 U

1 L5 ?* b6 ^' ^0 V4 v' ~! m; N而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
! [% d; `( n! H# }  ?2 v: |3 x  l0 ]/ G! \4 Q! a  C
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。0 k+ u8 `! S5 U# ^/ |: I7 ]
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理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
7 S1 J# [' J( {: l5 ?. i( B( X4 ~. m. J+ ^9 }. u1 U! P( x1 U$ U% y
但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。0 O2 U) M  @) ^% u+ V

: m( A3 E9 G/ D- ^* V! o" Y7 l( S在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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) s$ o- |- `8 l4 z' E几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。4 N  c; r8 D* Y" V$ V" ^" P* c
4 b- Q6 h) D8 `* L4 A' E% t: B) A/ _
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. o3 y: p0 r9 W常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。5 n2 ]! K. C; d. e
% i! A- T  K5 @
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，- w) J7 @1 g/ K$ F3 [, c2 h. D

; E2 i) x  l" q( N: _就是回避了大的亏损，$ e9 t% y9 S. j  i/ l" L7 T) J

, c8 Y" Y: r# L8 p% ~" i大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，% M9 j4 K1 T6 O8 _# b  h
! P( r1 j# Y/ J0 o# {; [' U( |
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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