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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 1 _1 N7 j7 V; V$ I& Z7 v# ]+ m7 }

2 c9 s/ N' B! }
' E6 j* [9 z$ M: Y只跟踪一个联赛; A, S) n4 t5 e* e
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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' T! o$ k; R9 j8 B. ?% l三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。* G4 v- {/ B- F
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）7 o/ Y9 Y; M0 O/ B1 T( B- H

: {7 I0 t$ |: |, h4 _然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，, T$ w$ q4 q* r- v+ o" h
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱  f: [" T4 O$ B* R  t! K

% t0 t' ?4 G/ J& q  J2 p  z7 y6 ]当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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3 W, c1 b5 U1 H
5 u/ f# Q0 P- x7 p: d, s亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
5 ^' M$ Y& \# X9 e) C  ^
: u' M1 e+ F: t. w7 d+ E7 r, \而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
1 @3 z: y6 @1 |3 M! f; M- g; c2 o2 n$ J; Q3 [+ ?0 n: ~
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。9 e. o4 l) e; a! E

! a& y- D- c' U! |1 n8 W" |! t6 I! B7 ~8 w* A' u8 v

  j1 E1 P0 _2 o( g理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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/ h. c, g% [9 R. i# H+ k0 q排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
5 J3 c% `8 a: K- k- ]4 y8 w6 P' L& m$ U: V$ r- w
但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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2 ]; H" p4 D& |3 M& A" k% h4 v这比买国债存银行合算。
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7 J1 k, V: j; T+ }. \& \在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，% ^2 f  I& o# m# S9 P

+ c2 b+ Q) y( r9 m& v几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。2 {7 a8 Y% G8 ^9 {4 S! c

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。& c  `  y' K3 s
2 |7 N+ e6 Y/ m; z
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，9 r; n3 e$ O& y, b4 ~6 l: M0 k
4 t1 e& X; T! H$ Y) ^
就是回避了大的亏损，3 r( s; |" L5 V& c2 o0 p

6 B! Q& n: T+ A" w0 Y0 B3 B1 H2 p大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
8 k5 j8 s( F7 @- [- {4 {$ V* k% \" Q
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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