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小分3种情况:
6 t" ^2 n8 I H) V
; @, c1 S! T" m; d* v$ G! S& @* u1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。 I( B& \0 z& Y! o9 x- ~# r6 ?
V5 _9 O# [4 `# |4 S, O3 s0 S2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
( V8 t+ u) m+ q/ K7 G' t: F2 F: s. W7 @7 f
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。# g9 }& c/ C1 K. b* W
, Q/ V3 b! o- C1 M4 x" U3 E2张牌8或9点的情况有:% J9 m5 n" P' Y* {; N
# x" w4 L$ R T/ K1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10' ~$ e! p; M1 K/ _7 a9 u7 b
% b7 G/ B4 V5 h& C! O3 ?
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415+ N5 ]; f7 E5 C/ y
" u6 R; Y9 M$ `+ O4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
3 K& p) s0 F5 E& w% w% _
, G+ C4 B" t, W6 D8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
9 Q1 c4 _* Y3 }# F7 b' x( B
* K0 }! ]* ` u! I2 I+ }. l2 i- ~由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
( x0 k7 h7 h, K4 R' K9 L5 a0 M8 b' ^ s9 \
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。0 }7 S+ ?# I' I+ ]. Y
: W- h' e' Y* X6 a那么我们可以得出
8 n* o1 o; [( T: C
* A2 }; W7 h- T3 }4 L/ r3 s9 C1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662, S5 _8 P z: F2 @. h( \
: G* p! Z7 l9 z6 D: W2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
! A! a( g( j: D2 w
) r* s0 N w' a# [4 h* `, X3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.0358854910 |1 S0 ?$ o. s! @$ C' n) k) A! {
" T4 e6 O- b0 B8 d+ j所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323; Z1 f8 P, Z( y5 d# H- ?2 H
! H$ Z3 r1 S6 M; G
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677) Y, k' j v. \- Q* I) Y
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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