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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘* a4 A3 i" B# P
     
3 T. D. ]- w" t) }' D+ s( D( ^     平手中水,主队有利
8 U! P1 z; b5 f5 X) M- z  w# H' y     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
; I2 ~5 D: I& R8 K     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:7 x3 N4 Q9 ]+ S; N# E
     英超主队
1 F% s, b! Z& K. S     胜:13场 48%
1 G# L, i) D) A" G. v8 r+ W3 a6 b     平:5场 17%2 q4 u- O$ V( U8 G- X/ H7 b, H
     负:9场 35%
/ b$ c4 b* l& L, ]/ `; ]9 z     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
9 B  h6 N% O( x1 z     
" h7 f' W1 ?7 C2 c" O- X     一、初盘阶段9 E' a) V+ q$ u9 O1 ]! v) C
     具体到水位如下:
/ P: z! g" W3 O0 z, }     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
# Y+ I* Y$ n0 R1 E4 d( i     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负# i, p9 F/ i# i$ y0 y( v. d
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负9 H6 o  R7 s6 x
     
" |& B: a' T4 `& V     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
$ f+ j7 P! {  {5 x" v     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。" T# N# {- G! d8 m( Y1 x
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
8 L% ]) L9 j! C! `. m$ y- ?     * S% c% a* x/ [! w" x  M
     二、临场阶段" w  v% k5 e* H* c6 B
     9 n0 p5 B5 r( l% [7 [$ R
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
  x+ W0 v! e' N5 B) {* X     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负% D! j5 R2 `) x+ a* X  |2 i
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负8 n, |" @7 s' Y% L8 C
     : T2 Y: w0 o0 G
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
$ n- M, s+ f# H5 \7 q     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:0 {. b# _1 I8 V
     % Q% I( ~! G, J  j1 o
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
1 H* Z( }: ?1 N     初盘:0.82平手1.04
/ s- Q4 P* n  N     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.853 k4 D5 s$ ?! u/ [
     1 t9 u5 V' s$ ~
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆5 ^: z( B; I/ }' V" i
     初盘:0.76平手1.10' G1 J. e2 X; M( V: l$ j
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
. E4 w: h% t3 Q* Q     
2 ~( k# ?6 e' C) I     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技7 `8 E& ]/ w$ |8 ~
     初盘:0.82平手1.04, u% `# o  j# }- b9 F
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
3 n, `5 J' N* s0 t* ?4 d1 e1 t3 s     
6 b; l' |0 e3 m6 w     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
( B7 B3 T5 S: A" S0 v0 N$ {     初盘:0.88平手0.98
" \& N1 K# G3 d+ L7 H5 V$ y     终盘:1.12平/半0.740 ?' t/ Q& M  A, j( [; W8 w
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
2 W$ t: m% E- a) ?' }3 U0 X3 r     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。( ?9 @1 E/ Z+ q# R
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
" m9 Z# d$ F6 d$ D9 A) p     - O$ R# }$ W0 h8 V$ O
     三、球队表现( a6 S- [# V5 x. y# S9 t  O
     " M. ^* _- ^0 v  K! Y% _  |
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
8 e4 e! g  F4 E1 f" B1 r     
) n2 A) |& k; Z  n5 ^' [* g# A     四、投注要点+ q, W$ X/ s# y/ E" x
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
0 }/ b1 j; d6 P0 Y2 ^     要点2:平手降盘、走两头% w. ]' o# ~& u' x7 C
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
& Z9 z' Q, _0 h1 p5 a     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
- M( {; T' A7 z. R     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任0 E4 Y# B6 \8 |/ }: F
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大# h; ]' K; h) ]. p. x, w- p% f
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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