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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘+ O7 N2 A" c% U0 }9 Z; f1 x
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平手中水,主队有利3 V1 i# T0 r9 ?0 A* h4 `
在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
7 o, N2 k2 E3 S+ i$ y 09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
) r) a) r, b/ ~7 @ 英超主队6 i, ?& f" ^; L d6 q9 R$ e
胜:13场 48%7 j# l. L- g5 B6 y M
平:5场 17%
9 N K) n I: S3 M; X1 a* l8 Z 负:9场 35%6 b _' @) V0 } h1 p; d* D
通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。1 B+ ?3 |2 v# u* g( N9 M
# c B* H6 O F! N
一、初盘阶段
. d$ Z( i: i0 B0 ]* E) _( C& @. m 具体到水位如下:' c3 U7 \! w) P0 G
初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负6 ?& \- s& J8 ?5 X
初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负 ]4 Y% A. k1 S
初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
0 N* S! x9 e" e: ~% E) r 0 b8 l1 `' i4 `$ l! u* i& v# g
分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
) o, N7 n$ A! } 初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。' c6 L( s. |; D! H
初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。1 b: H7 N5 @( w( r
. A/ M) T. w& O- f 二、临场阶段$ W3 E$ m* g- g3 A" E4 e: ?1 q
: Q: J1 N8 D# A6 d 具体到变盘和水位如下:
( ]+ k4 W3 x8 Q& @; Z 临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负! b+ a6 m7 K I
临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
$ E6 D$ n p1 k& u / l+ f9 m3 P4 n% m
临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。7 ]! y: j5 }2 ~' N% L- i1 [2 _$ W
临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:! i. l# p6 E6 V3 X
4 j- n- |5 ~, b& j" ]8 H3 A
朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
2 G* i5 ~1 `2 \2 t 初盘:0.82平手1.04
- a" J# {0 k8 O$ s 终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
; j8 I" w4 e. R7 l 3 J$ p6 n& f) w5 {
朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆# N% J9 @2 w3 B6 Y
初盘:0.76平手1.10
" d' ^3 f( }" Q( |3 f+ o 终盘:0.95平手/半球0.917 F3 g% ~& V7 Z: Q( j+ {$ U, ^* I
: [3 d- @' p7 [ L$ T5 ~ 朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
8 Y& h, r1 `8 Y; W. v 初盘:0.82平手1.046 N/ p& ]: {/ Y
终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
5 n4 J6 x% L; M+ p6 p6 s8 u1 F
( I, H$ B! j% J. m" Z z: d% o 伯恩利2-1西汉姆4 `4 w) ^' {+ Y; h* Y
初盘:0.88平手0.98
8 X' @5 V) [" @: u( u- k1 C 终盘:1.12平/半0.746 m' I4 [1 L. N; g
我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
6 S0 W. U3 N% M. F! b 提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
* b1 ~+ b$ ~# x. ^4 t) @ 提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
+ m5 y6 y- z0 v. W5 h& P `+ v
/ M$ }* u6 ?8 |* u% s) c* r 三、球队表现+ J `% i- t* l q$ x
+ r5 r1 O) `: H- P
结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
2 p3 v$ [. B! z& n
! m9 c" U: o# } 四、投注要点3 z" Z; S G% E3 [$ n) q/ p
要点1:平手中水、主多不败2 d ~ @9 }( [+ F$ M1 A' Y
要点2:平手降盘、走两头
! ]2 z0 n- n* v2 T X0 `2 \: o% R 要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败6 |: t/ c/ b- ^/ I# I
要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
0 X( E/ d& a2 ^4 z, V 要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
% d# ^* o6 j" J- D) O1 }% X$ O' V 要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大
- O8 ~2 Q9 F/ R) e; B* ]! A 要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛 |
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