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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘7 Q* m$ }: {+ T1 p
     
  n( A: w1 b4 }% e: T( ~     平手中水,主队有利+ G' ~7 o0 i. g3 O9 D
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。  K  r) b/ v. T( w
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
0 K( e( T0 c) `; B4 o     英超主队
$ Q) ?, E2 q! W- h     胜:13场 48%
, I5 R7 |+ J2 b3 e& z8 I     平:5场 17%
. p: z  M5 T: {1 G) S5 @     负:9场 35%. k; h% ~6 S6 f( p& a
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
8 L5 ]' j! o. M+ ^- g* F' X     
! F8 m" d' x+ S4 O     一、初盘阶段. L8 c& o9 M. s1 \0 n
     具体到水位如下:
, x& M- Q8 V) }8 [1 C$ i+ z$ a     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
+ }: A. `% Z1 `3 _$ e% Q     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
. o' }1 a2 E) L) W* A9 C     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负4 R7 Y! A" {) O2 N
     7 P* s. s$ z) l4 }0 _6 {
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
7 @2 ^$ B9 I, n( m7 {3 v) w) H     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。3 G( w5 X5 `) T$ L; p4 ?0 p
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
! B6 u2 E# p( }     
1 K' A$ ?7 x4 o     二、临场阶段5 u" |% ?5 t$ b" r: W8 _) D# d
     ! B' L0 E* Y. t4 I: d( B# L
     具体到变盘和水位如下:0 p7 a7 O! M1 K& a: S! \" o
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
! j0 p4 w' i+ {" F' e     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
+ }5 z; x1 W. F7 a0 Y6 {- f9 P     
3 N+ j, o" |+ `$ K+ W" p: W     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
- o5 N( f/ n, }' c8 J) Q- s& B5 s6 U     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
) Z) u+ [" W# H* s# L     
* [0 i) n% x. ]5 j# x; Y& q* G: T/ L     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
6 X$ M+ ?& D. j3 W7 T1 T     初盘:0.82平手1.04
' r, M, R: Y, m1 r/ u# z0 e     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
+ }! u; I- o5 `* o7 d; a     + }/ }( z$ e; G6 P
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆$ Q4 e& I# i/ c% o1 A% p
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
, O  q4 R( l; X  r2 I/ a, j5 `     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
8 H1 [# H. {. y3 u3 |       o3 t1 l( n; {! p$ S# t
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技3 S1 `/ _% o  `, E" }
     初盘:0.82平手1.04
! n8 e' A$ Z$ F4 U+ U( a0 S/ H     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.980 u- Z, O- Q0 g0 K( s- M# j7 ]
     
' R( i: P( y& q( O" c. z6 \) Z/ |     伯恩利2-1西汉姆3 g  _% f  h% N2 Y# |
     初盘:0.88平手0.982 P5 t( k. e7 \0 h; i6 d9 s! K* D
     终盘:1.12平/半0.744 b0 g: |8 t# Y" t( m: a/ k
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
5 _- j# Q+ N7 }     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
+ |# Y, ?( ^2 n0 j     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。& R2 y3 c  Y' T: G: f" g( [
     
' B6 f2 v9 [1 _     三、球队表现
  J" R2 x" p' c6 B' y' ?, H3 s     / b4 c' F" `2 a
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。8 T+ F& ]% [! f* ]+ t+ K
     
) V( q/ K- o7 g  A0 v1 A8 F     四、投注要点6 g( V1 x. w* }+ G7 B( Z
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
5 ]( B# q" H9 G( E     要点2:平手降盘、走两头9 C- Y( t- h0 u' I
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
' [! ]7 m/ h1 Y$ E     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
' d+ A# ~8 r# J1 p( t     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任. ~4 I3 M2 U6 B+ {- i5 N. N/ h
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大6 X% o3 G! O$ G7 S2 }! p
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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