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[lastpost] => 2656831 微策略再发债买比特币 筹5亿美元买币及一般企业用途（转载） 1718359588 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
美国滞胀风险吓退加密市场 比特币以太坊双双退至悬崖边缘（转）
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加密市场目前似乎正处于悬崖边，正在争论该走哪个方向，这也意味着更多的看涨和看跌言论将涌入市场。4 e' N& t0 _- K* G
6 U! b& D$ O- B2 w9 R @3 c而由于人们再次开始担心美国滞胀，加密货币先表现出下跌的趋势。3 v* t- N/ G. ^& D6 U. c+ [: ?: [
2 |3 k4 Z0 j, m* p1 p根据CoinDesk数据，截至发稿时，比特币交易价格接近 62400 美元，24小时内下跌2.4%，较3月的历史高点则已
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累计跌去15%。以太坊下跌4%，至3200 美元以下，衡量流动性的指数CoinDesk 20下跌 2.6%，至 2170点。 [7 M% e# j& E3 n" f# M
3 c& o$ e* ]0 }. m# d1 G上周的美国GDP报告显示，继上一季度增长3.4%之后，其今年第一季度的年化增长率降至1.6%。与此同时，美0 y' m r: | P3 c4 T0 U# k
4 C2 X" b3 d; F; {. X3 K* q联储关键通胀指标PCE指数显示，今年前三个月的物价年化率从2023年最后一个季度的1.8%升至3.4%。1 s1 n, }* I! D3 i# K
& S, u5 p( K5 V& b7 ^- J/ g' F! jGDP增速放缓加上通胀粘性增加让市场再次看到滞胀出现的可能性，并进一步削弱了美联储降息的可能性。预测3 m9 E9 y5 `0 `/ C F! i
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平台Polymarket上关于美联储货币政策的押注中，大多数交易者现在认为今年不降息的可能性为35%，较一周前& l k6 {' e" }$ P9 R1 G& v; j
2 ]9 i- D8 g# o! J的26%明显上升。
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, g3 d1 V, P2 B8 \( E' jCoinDesk分析师Omkar Godbole表示，比特币牛市持续的关键是美国财政部即将发布的季度再融资公告，其将说明
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& j p1 G. S4 x* f( A' B! Y* I( I一季度美国ZF的借款需求以及财政部普通账户中持有的余额，或将预示着美国接下来的财政政策方向。2 S6 ~! h* z. s0 X, p) x
' V i T) q$ R. d H还在乐观的一些人8 B: j9 U( `2 i8 i
这一前景导致加密货币市场情绪明显变得低迷很多。上周六，加密分析师Peter Brandt分析称，比特币的牛市
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周期已经呈现出指数级衰减的模式，80%推动牛市的能量已经消失。9 N( S, F* M$ a8 r6 _1 v9 w
! U' Z% O: h# z) K" x8 X1 p6 ?他估计比特币当前周期的顶部约为70000美元，而3月时这一价格已经被触及。但他也怀疑比特币仍有可能还未看
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9 {0 G7 Q# s/ A& [+ k- k! v到价格触顶。1 E0 E$ T3 W8 _# C, A* W; l3 }5 I
! |! l- s6 y% h/ J9 p0 ^与此同时，一些分析师还指出本轮比特币上涨之中存在一些更加积极的因素。其中一个关键点在于本轮周期中，7 ]2 E @, K) q( S- x. j
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不同于以往散户为主的推动，机构显然通过比特币ETF贡献了极大的力量。) Z/ l; U9 O( I; I
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此外，还有人则指出，比特币的减半事件导致目前该资产的通胀率已经降至1%以下，全球每天只能开采450个比/ }& M6 L: ]) F. ^, c q' W/ \
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特币，这意味着比特币比终极对冲工具——黄金更加稀有。这也让一些投资人坚信比特币比黄金拥有更强的避险
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属性。4 k- g( n) d Y+ m2 m2 v
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