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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 0 A) X1 f& C4 |+ ]$ T1 i, u
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. _0 C2 v5 O3 K- U, r只跟踪一个联赛( N; a5 L; q- G, Z0 i! c9 m8 o9 T

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4 |5 I7 t- ?# i* F+ ^3 c& D5 P全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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6 H, J9 x6 r6 ^- P' c三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，0 d) {4 i& C  f" d) E# Q% e! o

( V2 v! r) E; f: d偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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2 |: X4 Q& a- I方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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! X% i! v8 C+ B  Z8 ^! v' u然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，2 u4 l" R- s9 K# G% x; b
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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/ n5 x! m9 N$ h. e  @3 W/ N4 y当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目* z3 R. ~( s6 S! Z  s) [# |) _
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+ q/ J5 x  o; }9 U% n2 P4 N2 U- r! v' ?7 ~* s, A4 n, f
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
1 T* h7 ^0 E7 H( Z" d8 \
2 [# M  a6 ?7 {9 y$ L; k: q  h/ L而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
$ j! z9 T( A- Q' a( J, \; [7 R# S  |" m2 z) n8 E
但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。, ~0 l0 p7 K% k9 O% {0 @! {

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- R/ w4 K( j+ a5 d3 t理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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. E) \& V" ?7 x. H/ a2 s3 H排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，* S9 |; Z- M8 J% O9 w
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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# W8 R; W7 T" H9 ]# o4 [在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，. M7 y; G4 Z) O

; @- c, ]" g4 N' N- }" C! h几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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) b. j2 o$ Q/ a) R/ d) y% b$ k9 R( z! b! F+ e/ _
常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。+ T- B! ^; E' `- s

7 `& n4 U9 C8 P2 [5 k6 R7 j放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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" w6 b8 d9 p, o, @3 \9 e8 T* i. x就是回避了大的亏损，& d5 }  E. s- I- i
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，7 O2 H5 @; L: w! {& t% Y
8 B& j4 z! w0 z9 _/ j& @3 D
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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