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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 * K( d8 e5 f& a8 {: ~

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只跟踪一个联赛6 b4 Z/ y& A# C, d4 v2 L/ J

  `7 c9 y, C4 e
/ U+ w: ]* u7 Y" t4 f5 \. @全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔9 e8 }' F& L) `# n! `/ j; i/ C
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）5 t+ x0 B7 K2 I; w, S
+ l6 e/ k( }4 |0 T$ @# C, B. y5 e6 v8 [
然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目, _/ G6 r: S, g: N

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5 ]% s: F  }9 @+ a" X. t, q
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
3 s" o% a# X! @) m0 B2 {/ Y# H$ \: u0 v% w
而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
- H' g8 P: s( A" c4 ^' ^6 s
' K1 v6 H1 Z" w但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
3 e0 ?" i& y. R5 t" U7 e. ?  E# E# k: Q/ x. i3 V; P

8 k0 C8 j+ L9 p2 Y% m4 c6 P7 Q
理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。9 N; D: E& O0 ?% {  x4 O( j" M- j
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，  Q# q* X  i) n, q3 b2 L% M

- w7 @% s! x. D2 P1 |+ [但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，& _4 ]/ K; |% m2 W3 }  f

5 c: b% @% t$ K6 E1 w这比买国债存银行合算。, |9 w" y  q8 n! f* X

; Q2 |: z+ k! i4 e0 h0 y! c2 t在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
% K7 I) B/ l& r! p8 N' p: c- ^. q( v* m4 }2 E* w1 N% I
几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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. ]' N# p* |2 y8 k* b4 |. `常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
3 m4 O5 ^& S; C- T3 H# i2 T' t: o" _! J$ v
放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，; M% h/ S* P' u6 |1 Q' f+ D& F
+ ?2 J7 O- T- }  O/ ?4 e! W8 t
就是回避了大的亏损，
; `2 V0 `( ]5 Z6 P4 `2 M7 \- R& R4 a
: `! h( ?, z0 a+ w0 K# E. K2 W* G大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，5 m  h- o; _1 H( ^6 v
  v5 ?2 S9 Y9 f- ~" T4 b
回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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