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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
3 d+ u- S, D4 T; I     
. h% u# q6 h3 I( A     平手中水,主队有利7 s. U1 c6 X$ k: r2 O- X
     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。9 F* _4 s4 [$ R% @# V, I' w
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:. T7 q% W2 _2 m8 }! r
     英超主队
9 K5 Z; A1 p" f! ^' A& w3 {     胜:13场 48%! X7 s6 w/ M% U0 I3 Z3 t$ o2 J
     平:5场 17%
9 }) _5 Y' ]: ^' T     负:9场 35%
2 e$ q; Z0 Z* g+ U. d5 k& j     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! c% m, d! M9 B: m  T2 v, a$ a
     
0 D- a9 a! x3 P: a4 W, H: Z     一、初盘阶段8 D! h+ B+ I" T* W$ D1 c7 g
     具体到水位如下:/ v: g" [! A7 A7 Y4 W6 K
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负1 P# p6 O# d. B/ A9 e
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
' L) v% D: m( T     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
1 ]( V2 Y: t. h6 C; J; r     " `$ K3 N5 p9 [  k, i
     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。) a# F: `) @# A" E
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。) x: X4 f1 @+ T: C$ T8 o
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。% O! ]6 S; h5 _: v2 C: e: }
     
$ o0 Q! \7 a. m/ \" T* ~5 _     二、临场阶段
7 N$ {7 M+ `$ l& e- g% o( S4 M( D     7 z4 M. j! |' F) w- m7 G) Q
     具体到变盘和水位如下:
8 T2 @, P" n- m" L7 o; L3 E- r5 p     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负; \/ {/ T( B, s
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
# b2 o* L- F7 I) i% u/ m; q. U  ~     8 {9 U0 M: d3 R) s! I. o8 S
     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。9 u$ E; b  E# e& a2 _  C9 O1 I2 x
     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:0 X5 k4 k  `* m
     ) {0 V2 h/ o! ^( \/ Q
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
' \* |1 W, F; w- `     初盘:0.82平手1.04
6 z5 H: b5 A0 u# @9 B/ J     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
* r7 ?- e  V- m     
8 J' [" D' k( e7 U! k     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆* _* j  {' \" q
     初盘:0.76平手1.10
8 h- X2 |* J( S* n# I     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
: J5 R8 v, |. _2 P7 ?. R  S& o     
: F; P: j  ]9 Y/ S+ v- D: F     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技6 O% D" V. E7 @- A) @
     初盘:0.82平手1.048 `3 C. Q& h; @" X7 J
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98" ^6 d6 j: E( d/ l* \
     * g9 R0 v- E8 J8 d6 ?. s
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
# M; ]# Y" Y# o/ \     初盘:0.88平手0.98, N: t) Y8 _% X' Y
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
% B* b! j! ]6 h0 o. {  z  w     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
: {* `: f7 I* ?; t6 ]9 b+ V' B     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。: p6 @( a3 C7 a0 D$ ]$ i
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
% |- V% ^5 @) v/ O7 ?     ) c0 @1 M# j! g  q+ |3 ?8 N8 i+ d
     三、球队表现
+ a. B7 }. j# L: n' m4 }  P     
2 n( A3 I1 ^+ k: E+ c! f( s6 w     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。1 O5 A( @2 _1 ~! L" y$ W
     
  D; Y; S6 L& h     四、投注要点
' Z8 e( S9 Y6 A4 ^+ M+ W) ]/ O( G     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
& [+ l1 S. [. J: Q# p1 a9 E     要点2:平手降盘、走两头0 q' |7 m& Q0 U. k" b
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败- W1 t: L* g% t# S  f
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
$ j/ p% c* d5 t9 o2 P     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任) g0 y0 t  [* k' f8 J
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大) e/ ]/ L. }* t1 J& K  m, h- l2 t. z
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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