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[lastpost] => 2648254 减半后比特币矿工上个月的表现 大部分收入月降幅不超过15%(转) 1715144471 rainwang
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3月1日消息,据英国《金融时报》报道,比特币价格在兑许多货币的比率中创下新的纪录高位。
; X3 U2 }5 S3 ~
) T% N3 R- @# E# G) Y! f' ^4 x$ ]8 Z美国批准比特币现货ETF的消息助长了市场的热情。预期在四月底比特币挖矿产出减半加剧了市场的
7 I) I, j! l9 T6 o* a5 x1 _$ T7 l" B3 `* z1 K8 X
狂热。预期下一次减半的买家需求上升,解释了为什么加密货币牛市现在愉快地预测比特币价格很快
' P6 ?2 C! N+ A: D ~3 x
5 G% i2 r6 q; g8 t- @将超过100,000美元。
- x: ?1 @/ Q9 Y w$ _1 e. u9 l
/ {9 |" V# Z7 M/ s) l仔细观察,这种看涨目标似乎有些可疑。根据摩根大通的估计,目前的生产成本——主要是用于进2 J* _2 e7 O x" S% L% E7 M+ D
' y- n! I2 K! I+ }5 _+ M行挖矿计算的电力成本——约为27,000美元。这为比特币设定了一个价格底线。减半后,这个价格将4 q9 z2 y- A/ i0 J6 R1 O
, E3 O* o9 @" a6 c3 D' Y8 k1 V短期内跳升至约50,000美元。 * R6 q2 \7 s+ k' U# \- n
& S% j: b" S4 B: h K然而,最近的激增使比特币价格远远超过了生产成本。对于比特币而言,这种情况并不可持续。此外,; q2 \2 ^1 _' z0 ?3 X
" W5 v/ X2 ]" s" I0 v$ c' H7 O
这些成本在减半后不久就应该开始下降,因为效率低下的矿工将退出市场,无法跟上步伐。随着旧机
7 v6 ~" z$ b9 m l$ p' @
1 X0 g+ R0 m* g) ~$ m O( L3 R器被淘汰,哈希率应该会下降,生产成本也会随之降低。在某个时候,价格上涨势头将会减弱。假设
) X0 y4 z- O( b' S
4 S& {) R# j6 E6 g2 {( ~挖矿处理能力下降了五分之一,那么生产成本相应将下降到约43,000美元左右。
4 F0 \9 n J5 N+ ?1 r% ^3 j- \% v% j) t2 s. _
0 ?2 Z1 E( @1 _' w! ~7 b |
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