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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 ! H" ]) K+ c: ?
* f0 e# o' P0 O" z, W其实原文标题不是这样的/ |; @* R4 G5 [/ ]* m3 S: c
; I A% _! B5 ~: D这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
! }: O, {# U4 D" q" T" `% c; w* \' h' W6 o6 \
! g q2 V) a0 b) R2 g
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...+ l; ^. A9 h8 T' i8 [3 F$ l
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
/ S# k1 a) W7 v; w0 n7 _) @ ]7 _" G! c5 ?% e y. T X
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。0 H1 j3 c* Q7 y* q0 Y3 D- i2 u U
/ V% d1 `! Z: V' U B" ~3 `: Y/ p
「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」0 w' K( Y/ D e$ L' M+ Z" I) ]! [
5 w- ^# Z. e# b+ e「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
4 ]$ D7 e+ e6 c9 l9 G, p/ Z「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」& h( D5 {& J6 N& F6 o- r
8 G) G$ m6 w' z7 j. ~( M 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
7 [# G8 P! S: k+ m+ a, y k4 ^ |
5 M. A2 T: ?& z7 i3 c. o( ?4 E7 ^) d接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，5 ]- l0 u$ Y5 [9 d) B- Q j
因此铜板较容易出现正面。# A: s8 c. `6 t0 F7 `6 q! [% o. @/ B
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 1 k" @ ^- P, }8 B
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。3 E' e# Q4 G% B8 o7 l
心想赢定了。! ~& ]' Z1 D7 ~* d& c/ }
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没想到开始不到半刻钟，
9 c, u8 v0 M* h* D1 |赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」, O+ S- k% j$ I8 e
0 C& |. C/ z" |4 S1 x赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
$ _9 M4 {; x* J' ~但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。
$ b2 T! H* D2 A. B6 O
0 S2 K; s) A# T3 W) B: q$ X赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?2 d5 M0 g( V& b6 w
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 # `- g( q1 G" n/ |- d: w
上帝回答道：
. L# Z5 P* A$ Q- B! }! \「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」! w9 D" e/ `5 @+ n2 p) V$ j+ I
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」+ H0 R, s* t- q
「而不是先发生在我身上。」$ R( |! s9 B0 I1 p' `/ _
1 u: @3 _9 X9 v E# x8 k7 @7 d 赌徒恍然大悟，
" V8 C. i$ D I4 ^3 q# g6 S# L( G原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
) Q8 G' o7 D! [1 u/ J! M竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！+ z A7 m' Z! l- ?9 N) a
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」* R! |7 } S: ^$ U9 T
上帝说完便不见踪影。
* t( y8 j5 L N
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，
% [6 q, y8 N, v7 {( w8 C9 @% \若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，& g# p6 i# Z8 r
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，8 g. _ w- I g! t( l
对赌徒十分有利。+ V& l$ N9 V3 u: p
3 F4 V/ a" `6 B( }2 ^8 k
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，/ g: a6 y0 m' z& W9 \. T! P
在还没掷到1000次之前，
8 r5 X( b0 r* H9 Z# ^仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。, L6 w! F1 J4 {7 x% R/ A
3 s9 O/ ^$ [' Z) s+ U( ^6 b* I0 R
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
: n! W& I$ r6 I6 q0 o
! t1 ~7 J, x) `" X% s6 e! i 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。+ ^" ], l) g) A
9 p2 }; C2 @5 j; e f1 [" r 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，1 F6 B9 B, J# m* Q% L4 q4 ~+ F
8 @: J) ~" T* y* m 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ . B/ U, F8 e- |% b8 o/ S& B
! x$ N9 k* `- x4 h& o K: s/ }
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