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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 " I4 g& G- \* q L
" h# }0 N8 m! K" P3 |4 X其实原文标题不是这样的+ P) s+ l( [0 P* F C
6 x3 L+ \) t( w7 `' l) ~$ X
这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
7 x: ~( e7 X; c# T" U$ k P3 W; s+ P/ K
/ W U0 F" x# L7 O$ {# {
有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
2 j0 t2 w! o' [9 k0 c0 Y他希望能和上帝来场赌局。' C7 r( X- J& }$ M1 V
2 d6 I8 f; e Y/ O/ }3 L) i 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
5 [8 b, l$ j* F5 B6 f# j8 f8 ]- a
/ i* S1 \2 g- h5 h" @- K4 v& y 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
: I0 F. H! ~$ T" H1 a" t+ H 8 [2 p7 m- w* U2 @$ i1 \: k3 z
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」
; s( S8 U* }8 P6 _% ?1 D9 i「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」; C% X; U: N9 i/ y8 C L5 L H
6 U- \& i9 T0 R1 h' k
上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。; s6 ?/ b D+ n8 @4 O1 T- W
2 `2 u8 X( ~* F7 W: K& N: _6 o Q: w
接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
# I) t0 W# @" k# n' ^8 u因此铜板较容易出现正面。# C5 O6 o' Q. c* Y7 O
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 ) g& `: P. h* E
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。0 X4 n( j* y2 m7 a
心想赢定了。: X: D9 ~4 G1 F
& S& r1 o% ]- ^( W没想到开始不到半刻钟，3 n: Y, x' W$ N( ^7 @
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」6 C) i1 ^' |4 ~$ \! k _
# t' T* Y( F9 ~! ]0 E" A G赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，
- f6 C: W i- e6 \+ _2 f但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。- n& G: M; p& Z
. B+ n2 |# m+ f# F6 T8 F8 ?赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?8 s t- i6 V/ l0 J; t8 D- B _
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 . D+ I: C6 E+ v% x- |; K
上帝回答道：
0 }3 t; c7 a! {「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
) a0 L9 p. {' H' Z「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
* c2 X n& b, z: Y+ A9 T" \0 R「而不是先发生在我身上。」1 f! _4 W6 {* }4 G! T9 g
4 z. `/ p- L2 e5 H8 W 赌徒恍然大悟，) [2 Q7 H9 p6 w" u) b
原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
2 V% z6 r# X; w# {竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！! B& Y! j4 g" w7 f S
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
; M8 {+ e$ N+ z8 L' p上帝说完便不见踪影。
g ~3 d/ I0 a* Q% E
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，% L) `- r' f3 k0 ]) J' O% v
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，- r) q7 c. C' @
1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，0 s5 a5 j8 B1 z p& V
对赌徒十分有利。0 F+ B8 T4 h+ ]- E; w# p
, b0 J: Q; B1 E) ^+ @5 T
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，
. U" |: B- [4 K3 e; I, \: B" q在还没掷到1000次之前，
9 r; u, H; ~7 B$ j5 o: r2 `仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。+ F9 `' b" m* |4 E1 W* E
! m( u; w( \5 f& }* i& i3 n 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
8 S0 F: ] h+ ?" E" ?9 V
% o3 A* H: w- M( U# Y/ @7 d 事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。, S1 G: H/ O( h. r/ s G6 f. {
0 C! g: t/ k: \ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
+ b- t! n) b% G6 d1 g3 {* `% ^; I8 q+ k! n" U4 |' ~
永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ / ]; w( R( S% J* m5 o7 v, J
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