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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 : ^1 o) a' I# i& Z" B
7 E$ N" v+ Q# k _其实原文标题不是这样的5 ]6 P, I. B/ B: @+ z& U; \
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
: p9 a) \) }5 W- }3 j+ {" Q( }! m) y l
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...9 k, l2 U- [1 B; _: C$ O
他希望能和上帝来场赌局。0 @- m0 p$ ~+ }/ d8 a0 b: a' v
* X: b P3 }3 y2 z3 G" T2 t! \8 I8 Q 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
" k* ?5 `; Q# X
" l: p8 _* P. ~3 k8 I 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」
1 c+ s; R( K& r' j 2 g$ j- B" _7 J8 P; z/ [
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 / v T1 _0 ~5 k6 ?( l/ R
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」
2 Y, ^4 O) N. }( D: _6 g
) R# V) |+ Y3 k% S3 [ 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
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接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
7 }" W/ I3 x+ Y* W) T S因此铜板较容易出现正面。
/ j# Z: s! M3 b, ~" O长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。 & C, u7 U3 D v$ }2 z/ L; D
因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。# u5 F2 T9 v. E6 s$ m
心想赢定了。
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. K2 ?2 i. X$ k) n没想到开始不到半刻钟，5 H, v9 ]) w( Y# v( p. [
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」$ F e- t4 Y. D( r1 x
8 z. S; W, _9 x赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，- R; r' S3 m l8 ^! r3 k
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。$ v; W' I N U; d* K8 `$ E1 M
% F: E+ a1 n6 q/ x
赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?' ]6 w8 y T# r7 C$ o5 ?
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。 9 `% t1 A( a, n( r
上帝回答道：/ f, m; s8 }% J2 w; n: ^! {
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
) l; q5 T( p O「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」& f5 |# k) ^6 ^- u
「而不是先发生在我身上。」
7 z4 g5 Z, b' l* a* J7 F, D
& k$ J6 \" m& [2 t0 @$ `6 m1 C 赌徒恍然大悟，
+ H, g3 Y4 L+ n `6 P' {1 z$ W原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
$ g0 y2 l9 e! J/ Q- U% j1 S竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！4 G8 T. P* H1 b
「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」
5 R- N3 i G% M) f上帝说完便不见踪影。
/ k0 }- C% \3 }7 z: Y( U4 @
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，- {9 q" l" a( j1 j: x- W; t# ?
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
+ h0 @# a: R2 \5 Y1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，
5 r% ~7 \& n% V) f; Q( H对赌徒十分有利。: G. x# R, v$ L4 {5 @0 b" x& |$ N
! t w6 o g9 e# r/ {3 S$ a但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，- V! E) Z( V9 s: H
在还没掷到1000次之前，
! @0 I9 \ o! a: [仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。% q0 E, M, p. X
. a/ u2 f7 l- b$ B; G. P 赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
' d/ R- o5 [2 b5 l5 s" C W/ R! i" ~( _8 x; I4 w% i3 c
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
' b% {5 f$ e# ~* G& ~' X. T. E) L0 ]0 Y8 U# y
市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，" U) i, Y) c7 p7 r! g
8 n. F9 b. p9 Y7 {, g4 Q& u 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ + Z4 x( g8 X( k, j
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