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[lastpost] => 2796859 通过 Polymarket 对预测市场的深度洞察及观点定价的本质（转） 1768990357 g9527
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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 6 M0 C6 K4 F- t8 f4 y
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因. , a0 [0 z S2 e) K% A
此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 , `( [& [" Z/ U% d
以太坊基金集体亏损 " t& v0 L. w( B8 \* I. ]8 Q; Y
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
, A+ L# A9 _, j! O与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。 $ v# h# D# C1 q. G0 [/ `
与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。
6 j% I) q+ H; e- L; x6 E1 R# X- u
6 D: l5 y7 Z0 [1 i: \# w+ E0 U# N
编辑切换为居中 2 K1 a* W$ ?7 i! n
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
3 H1 f9 z [( D$ h( D! f- h这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
. S5 H1 @! }! p. ~# W以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 ' p: Y# n/ p% I& }2 Z
! ~' {4 ]3 j' X编辑切换为居中
: Y' f) Q9 k7 l: Q! W0 l6月5日的TVL以太坊 3 i$ N2 S/ H! M. z3 w4 o& j( N4 {
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。
: O. T+ C3 \9 s- m7 W. r, i宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。
9 T4 J6 N( O. P男性讲述金融时报: 2 Y) \: \& f! m& o1 p
“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
2 d7 ^9 _8 ?& s& u' ~: l呆滞的技术面 7 J d7 k& e0 e0 _$ ]" O: g! d
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
" [# j0 e- }, i/ ?具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 $ {3 }; G" M, b
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。 # p8 G$ Y/ L) c5 V/ V: R3 [
0 m- s" _- F0 Z' w# ]编辑切换为居中 0 E6 i6 h0 p" z+ Q* ^5 J( V7 ?
ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 4 r. E4 d" Z m. n+ J( o% g2 a
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。 7 ~3 G" G/ i4 E0 e. ?4 V7 u9 P0 r
交易所的ETH储备正在增加
4 [! j3 u" o6 N$ P+ r' UCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. + e$ c& }' v! w/ ^+ n" C
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 * f$ W7 D8 c4 Z, c1 S7 u; h6 [9 O
& V. \1 X4 t5 K4 D: w& T编辑切换为居中
! k9 |# @2 ]3 q: e以太坊外汇储备 4 h7 _4 ]0 @ R8 o- x8 z1 n
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 . }* J% N6 F2 P7 `+ M
来源：金色财经 |
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