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[lastpost] => 2795816 从周期博弈到范式切换，下一个十年加密市场将如何定义？（转） 1767973033 我也来辣
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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。
& }1 T' b( O$ m' U7 i) R以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
; L7 z2 K/ g9 F此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。 6 d2 ?9 A! \1 n' t$ Y0 o
以太坊基金集体亏损 $ \# t8 g2 {0 G+ Q4 ~9 P. `
根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。
; T2 t0 q% h1 s" J与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
/ z% C2 O: b: d, A! R: ^3 B8 l& ~& f4 ?与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 $ b* Q' R3 A. `1 e& z: b
, ~! H2 V! l" R8 W0 @* Y5 d编辑切换为居中 : Z% L: k) |' J# Z9 t3 o
流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
+ V4 W+ J) ]( l) D. a这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。 8 i& i7 d1 H% u% l2 K
以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。 - ]) d$ v/ G, p+ x: W, w7 M
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编辑切换为居中 5 `/ z: `9 n3 J* z" _
6月5日的TVL以太坊
7 W6 t9 s0 k$ }8 `7 ~但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 " Z3 Z, r! A0 n' O4 K
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 9 P+ b; E- ~8 n: Z6 ~
男性讲述金融时报:
* H, y" b- `- M$ ^5 f“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面 & M5 e+ J6 Z, X2 j4 u3 V7 w4 F$ X
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。
! \( D# _) C8 M% y0 G; ?' B1 W具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。
5 v( x/ d4 h' `! g# B8 _, X/ ]/ ~根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
: q' K0 A. D8 |2 \1 ~, F5 l; m& x# j. y
8 @* \5 _* O, r1 e编辑切换为居中
$ _- z( c( g8 E8 G8 XETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 " W9 `: c- S" Z
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
5 B2 I/ v0 P; ?* R2 Q3 s. r交易所的ETH储备正在增加 ) @, z3 K* v9 ]1 a
CryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. ! T4 d$ s; e. } q, Y p
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。
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编辑切换为居中 2 B- Z6 y/ i; l. z9 X G
以太坊外汇储备 ; ~$ j7 l6 j& \8 A& I) I
通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 5 ]6 Z$ \' g# e1 D; Z
来源：金色财经 |
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