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[lastpost] => 2817943 今日虚拟币市场是跌的居多一点了啊 1774543528 垂钓园
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人# M& t9 Z7 |- K% K$ H# y \% D' A
& m4 r& p0 I; z1 R9 I2 G h1 h认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，! U, ? o x. v" @8 ^! P: G
4 U0 C) S8 M, l/ l而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富$ w5 Q: Z# O7 d
$ C7 c9 }, L E, }- \5 ~& ]* k& o的千禧一代。: Y8 E: n& |" L! |
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB) K+ A6 d# i( }4 [! ?) J/ ^* K
) W- b! W3 r+ J1 L的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“3 x1 }& Z+ a+ d: b+ S u
, H) X9 u; {- A* z: W" @! N8 x( E% _ 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
' e; l* `( _7 r* y* @/ E1 I9 `9 M. V
- S) G `' {/ y, O密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据/ {+ M2 Y- e& b( }. }" i5 q
! o+ f. a" [5 q% L- B m1 {《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成 x0 B6 ^0 ^: h* ^$ `
. i% a+ b2 g6 y0 o' i
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
( V% n0 ^" C0 Z& N8 X0 C4 \7 w+ U, w/ k3 k2 F0 I) R2 F; ?6 O! E
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
0 ^9 U) j1 ]$ A6 T4 P% g# `2 \6 d$ E) E
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为- x2 d0 O4 a# G
. M0 E9 K4 i8 @. ^ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
; M# R- c% A7 h0 L4 d L0 V/ U5 u8 @& S
据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降' V, a7 z& B" p" S
5 d% @1 s: D" c6 [7 e
息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。- V' e' {6 D6 e+ y8 j8 j; W
0 O+ F r2 C. K' L7 x
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
6 F' Z8 P: R. A' K" `0 j. Q
' g4 e' X$ [! k2 d! j9 U世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富
" L3 y7 Z$ N' y2 G4 Q' s' i/ x2 e1 I g5 Y$ H
传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不8 `6 X |1 ]3 I0 @6 v, W/ z
) @+ q* A; @/ R* `$ r% u0 ]3 _, ]到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
( N6 u3 A, y$ E/ j
; Q- ^! ^. p# ^' t代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成5 m+ W- Q5 n5 v: j! h
; d. i: O9 @0 W本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体/ Q. p; j& t. o: s
) V! T2 V) ?, o7 r4 i/ }( \; [9 z' u系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货- C& K# i, _+ x' e- L
& u! x. M: D; K; T* O' h
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致$ E% a) f$ S' {# ^; G7 y. O$ l5 {) I
+ s5 M) L; B4 I* x8 j未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富1 W' T6 u- T, D4 p9 Y' N+ p
2 a! }5 f7 A: s. M
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。1 u, }; @" w/ i5 y* U
! R3 Y) w. M; \$ }2 l
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